AZ Alkmaar — SC Telstar: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.0% |
| 12 | 84.6% | |
| X2 | 24.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.2% / 7.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 38.0% / 62.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
AZ Alkmaar
2nd place · 16 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 home Willem II 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Heerenveen 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away For Sittard 2:0
- 15.08.2026 away Utrecht 4:1
SC Telstar
12th place · 5 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Heerenveen 0:0
- 09.09.2026 away Twente 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Cambuur 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Ajax 0:4
- 14.08.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 1:3
This season: AZ Alkmaar at home vs SC Telstar away
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar · at home | SC Telstar · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| xG for per match | 2.52 | 0.96 |
| xG against per match | 1.23 | 2.11 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| Corners per match | 9.33 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 25.01.2026 SC Telstar 0:1 AZ Alkmaar
- 05.10.2025 AZ Alkmaar 2:1 SC Telstar
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar enter this Eredivisie meeting with a clear qualitative advantage over SC Telstar. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence, making AZ Alkmaar the more convincing side on the overall outlook. That edge should be reflected in the way the match develops, particularly if the hosts can impose their quality and maintain control of the key phases.
The game is also projected to have a high-scoring profile, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. That combination points to an open contest rather than a purely defensive approach from SC Telstar, even though AZ Alkmaar remain the stronger team in the assessment. The main expectation is therefore a match in which AZ Alkmaar create the more substantial attacking threat, with SC Telstar still having opportunities to contribute to the score.
What matters before kick-off
Eredivisie head-to-head history
AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in nine consecutive Eredivisie matches against Telstar. Telstar's last top-flight league victory over AZ dates back to September 1974.
Loan agreement between the clubs
Defender Abdelnour Soualhia signed for AZ Alkmaar in June 2026 and was immediately loaned to Telstar for the 2026–27 season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.