Ajax Amsterdam — Excelsior Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.6% |
| 12 | 87.9% | |
| X2 | 19.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.1% / 1.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.6% / 23.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.7% / 62.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.9% / 78.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Ajax Amsterdam
4th place · 13 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 home Willem II 5:1
- 12.09.2026 away For Sittard 5:1
- 05.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Telstar 4:0
- 16.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
Excelsior Rotterdam
7th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
- 08.09.2026 away Nijmegen 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Willem II 3:0
- 29.08.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nijmegen 0:0
This season: Ajax Amsterdam at home vs Excelsior Rotterdam away
| Metric | Ajax Amsterdam · at home | Excelsior Rotterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 2–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.59 | 2.09 |
| xG against per match | 1.83 | 0.98 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.33 | 6.67 |
| Corners per match | 7.33 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2026 Excelsior Rotterdam 2:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 22.11.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 1:2 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 24.04.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 2:2 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 19.08.2023 Excelsior Rotterdam 2:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 29.01.2023 Excelsior Rotterdam 1:4 Ajax Amsterdam
- 16.10.2022 Ajax Amsterdam 7:1 Excelsior Rotterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Ajax Amsterdam face Excelsior Rotterdam in the Eredivisie on 19 September 2026, with the hosts entering the match as the clearly stronger side according to the available assessment. The confidence in that evaluation is high, giving Ajax Amsterdam a distinct advantage in the overall outcome. Excelsior Rotterdam will need to remain disciplined and limit the spaces available to their opponents if they are to keep the contest close.
The match is projected to have an open, high-scoring profile rather than a cautious rhythm. However, whether both teams find the net is considered finely balanced, so the attacking outlook does not necessarily point to goals at both ends. The most likely scorelines listed are 3-0, 2-0 and 3-1, all of which reflect Ajax Amsterdam controlling the match while maintaining a significant threat in the final third. Excelsior Rotterdam still have a route into the game if they can withstand the early pressure and make efficient use of their opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Ajax attacking statistics
In the Eredivisie season, Ajax leads the league in total shots (140), shots inside the penalty box (97), and touches inside the opponent's penalty area (284).
Match before the international break
The Eredivisie encounter against Excelsior is Ajax's last fixture before the start of the international break.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.