Willem II Tilburg — Excelsior Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.3% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 69.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Willem II Tilburg face Excelsior Rotterdam in a contest that points towards an open and competitive match. The available assessment suggests a high-scoring encounter, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination indicates an attacking game in which neither side is expected to focus solely on protecting its own goal.
Excelsior Rotterdam hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence means the gap between the teams is not decisive. Willem II Tilburg should still have opportunities to make the match difficult for the visitors, particularly if they can turn the expected attacking exchanges into sustained pressure. The overall signal favours Excelsior Rotterdam avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a credible outcome in a fixture where both teams are expected to contribute offensively.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and absences
Willem II face a lengthy injury list including Thomas Didillon, Jari Schuurman, Amine Lachkar, Armin Culum, and Anass Zarrouk. Excelsior will be without Noah Naujoks and Mario Domínguez, who are sidelined with minor knocks.
Recent league results
Willem II enter the fixture following a 2-2 home draw against SC Heerenveen, leaving them with one point from three Eredivisie matches. Excelsior won 2-1 against Sparta Rotterdam in their previous match to take six points from three games.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.