Willem II Tilburg — Excelsior Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.3% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 69.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Willem II Tilburg
15th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
- 15.08.2026 home Nijmegen 1:4
- 08.08.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:4
- 18.05.2025 away NAC Breda 1:1
- 14.05.2025 home Zwolle 1:2
Excelsior Rotterdam
6th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nijmegen 0:0
- 15.08.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:2
- 07.08.2026 away Cambuur 4:0
- 17.05.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 3:2
This season: Willem II Tilburg at home vs Excelsior Rotterdam away
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg · at home | Excelsior Rotterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.57 | 2.87 |
| xG against per match | 2.18 | 0.72 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 9.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Willem II Tilburg face Excelsior Rotterdam in a contest that points towards an open and competitive match. The available assessment suggests a high-scoring encounter, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination indicates an attacking game in which neither side is expected to focus solely on protecting its own goal.
Excelsior Rotterdam hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence means the gap between the teams is not decisive. Willem II Tilburg should still have opportunities to make the match difficult for the visitors, particularly if they can turn the expected attacking exchanges into sustained pressure. The overall signal favours Excelsior Rotterdam avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a credible outcome in a fixture where both teams are expected to contribute offensively.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and absences
Willem II face a lengthy injury list including Thomas Didillon, Jari Schuurman, Amine Lachkar, Armin Culum, and Anass Zarrouk. Excelsior will be without Noah Naujoks and Mario Domínguez, who are sidelined with minor knocks.
Recent league results
Willem II enter the fixture following a 2-2 home draw against SC Heerenveen, leaving them with one point from three Eredivisie matches. Excelsior won 2-1 against Sparta Rotterdam in their previous match to take six points from three games.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.