NEC Nijmegen — Feyenoord Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.3% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 68.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.2% / 28.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
NEC Nijmegen host Feyenoord Rotterdam in an Eredivisie meeting that points towards an open contest. The available assessment suggests a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the attacking phases particularly important, while defensive stability could determine whether the match remains balanced or develops into a more decisive result.
Feyenoord Rotterdam hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the difference between the sides is not overwhelming. NEC Nijmegen should remain competitive, especially if they can turn their attacking opportunities into sustained pressure. The BTTS signal reinforces the expectation of chances at both ends rather than a tightly controlled match dominated by one team. Overall, Feyenoord Rotterdam appear marginally better placed, but the shape of the game could remain uncertain deep into the contest.
What matters before kick-off
Eredivisie Round 5 Fixture
NEC Nijmegen host Feyenoord at the Goffertstadion in a round five Eredivisie fixture on September 5, 2026.
Team Availability and Absences
NEC Nijmegen enter the match without Philippe Sandler and Darko Nejasmic, while Feyenoord report absences including Bart Nieuwkoop, Jerry St. Juste, and Gijs Smal.
Recent League Results
Ahead of the fixture, NEC Nijmegen secured a 3-1 away win against Zwolle, while Feyenoord came back to draw 2-2 against Den Haag.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.