SC Heerenveen — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 48.0% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 74.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SC Heerenveen face AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The assessment gives AZ Alkmaar a slight edge, with the visitors considered the stronger side overall, although the margin is not large enough to suggest a one-sided match. SC Heerenveen should remain capable of creating opportunities, particularly in a game expected to develop at an energetic pace.
The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are likely to find the net. That combination makes a narrow AZ Alkmaar advantage plausible while keeping a draw firmly in consideration. SC Heerenveen will need to manage the visitors’ attacking threat and make the most of their own chances, whereas AZ Alkmaar can look to impose their quality without losing defensive balance. The main expectation is therefore an entertaining match with goals at both ends and a slight edge for the visitors.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and injuries
SC Heerenveen are without injured players Marcus Linday, Mats Egbring, and Mees Hilgers. AZ Alkmaar are missing Denso Kasius and Stije Resink due to injuries.
AZ Alkmaar's recent form
AZ Alkmaar started the new Eredivisie season with four straight wins, including a 5-2 home victory against Go Ahead Eagles in their last league outing.
Head-to-head home record for SC Heerenveen
SC Heerenveen have won each of their last two home Eredivisie encounters against AZ Alkmaar by a 3-1 scoreline.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.