SC Heerenveen — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 48.0% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 74.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
SC Heerenveen
12th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Willem II 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Zwolle 0:2
- 16.08.2026 away Ajax 2:2
- 09.08.2026 home Twente 1:0
- 17.05.2026 home Ajax 0:0
AZ Alkmaar
2nd place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away For Sittard 2:0
- 15.08.2026 away Utrecht 4:1
- 08.08.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home NAC Breda 3:3
This season: SC Heerenveen at home vs AZ Alkmaar away
| Metric | SC Heerenveen · at home | AZ Alkmaar · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.62 | 3.23 |
| xG against per match | 1.66 | 0.68 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 10.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 12.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 AZ Alkmaar 3:0 SC Heerenveen
- 23.11.2025 SC Heerenveen 3:1 AZ Alkmaar
- 02.03.2025 SC Heerenveen 3:1 AZ Alkmaar
- 14.09.2024 AZ Alkmaar 9:1 SC Heerenveen
- 28.01.2024 SC Heerenveen 2:2 AZ Alkmaar
- 21.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar 3:0 SC Heerenveen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Heerenveen face AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The assessment gives AZ Alkmaar a slight edge, with the visitors considered the stronger side overall, although the margin is not large enough to suggest a one-sided match. SC Heerenveen should remain capable of creating opportunities, particularly in a game expected to develop at an energetic pace.
The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are likely to find the net. That combination makes a narrow AZ Alkmaar advantage plausible while keeping a draw firmly in consideration. SC Heerenveen will need to manage the visitors’ attacking threat and make the most of their own chances, whereas AZ Alkmaar can look to impose their quality without losing defensive balance. The main expectation is therefore an entertaining match with goals at both ends and a slight edge for the visitors.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and injuries
SC Heerenveen are without injured players Marcus Linday, Mats Egbring, and Mees Hilgers. AZ Alkmaar are missing Denso Kasius and Stije Resink due to injuries.
AZ Alkmaar's recent form
AZ Alkmaar started the new Eredivisie season with four straight wins, including a 5-2 home victory against Go Ahead Eagles in their last league outing.
Head-to-head home record for SC Heerenveen
SC Heerenveen have won each of their last two home Eredivisie encounters against AZ Alkmaar by a 3-1 scoreline.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.