Ajax Amsterdam — PSV Eindhoven: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.7% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 63.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 76.3% / 23.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Ajax Amsterdam
4th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Telstar 4:0
- 16.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
- 09.08.2026 away Zwolle 2:0
- 17.05.2026 away Heerenveen 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
PSV Eindhoven
2nd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Utrecht 6:1
- 23.08.2026 home Groningen 5:1
- 15.08.2026 away Excelsior 2:1
- 08.08.2026 home For Sittard 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home Twente 5:1
This season: Ajax Amsterdam at home vs PSV Eindhoven away
| Metric | Ajax Amsterdam · at home | PSV Eindhoven · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.00 | 2.91 |
| xG against per match | 1.37 | 0.41 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 Ajax Amsterdam 2:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 21.09.2025 PSV Eindhoven 2:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 30.03.2025 PSV Eindhoven 0:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 02.11.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 3:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 03.02.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 1:1 PSV Eindhoven
- 29.10.2023 PSV Eindhoven 5:2 Ajax Amsterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Ajax Amsterdam and PSV Eindhoven appear evenly matched ahead of their Eredivisie meeting. The available assessment gives this conclusion a high level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a contest likely to remain competitive throughout, where small differences in execution could shape the outcome rather than one team controlling the match from the outset.
The main signal points toward a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to score. The projected scorelines include a draw as well as narrow wins for either Ajax Amsterdam or PSV Eindhoven, reinforcing the expectation of a close encounter rather than a one-sided result. Defensive phases may be tested repeatedly, while the attacking quality of both sides should create opportunities at each end. The balance between the teams makes the match difficult to separate, and the strongest reading is a competitive game in which goals from both teams are more likely than a clean-sheet result.
What matters before kick-off
De Topper Clash in Amsterdam
Ajax face PSV Eindhoven at the Johan Cruyff Arena in round 5 of the 2026/27 Eredivisie season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.