SC Telstar — SC Cambuur: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.0% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SC Telstar meet SC Cambuur in the Eredivisie on 6 September 2026, with the available assessment giving the hosts a moderate but clear edge. The expected profile is open rather than cautious, pointing towards a high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net. That makes the match difficult to frame as a one-sided defensive battle, even though SC Telstar are rated as the stronger side.
The projected scorelines reflect that balance: a narrow home win and a draw both feature prominently, while a home victory without conceding is also considered possible. SC Cambuur therefore remain capable of keeping the game competitive, particularly if they can take advantage of the open rhythm suggested by the scoring outlook. Overall, SC Telstar have the stronger position before kickoff, but the assessment favours an entertaining match with several plausible outcomes rather than a result that can be treated as certain.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability updates
SC Telstar defender Marvin Peersman is sidelined, while SC Cambuur are missing injured midfielders Wout Asselman and Daan Visser.
Sold-out away sector for Cambuur
SC Cambuur will be supported in Velsen-Zuid by a fully sold-out away section of 400 travelling supporters.
Match referee appointment
Joey Kooij has been appointed to referee the match between SC Telstar and SC Cambuur at BUKO Stadion.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.