ADO Den Haag — Fortuna Sittard: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.5% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.5% / 53.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
ADO Den Haag face Fortuna Sittard in an Eredivisie meeting that points toward an open and competitive contest. The assessment gives ADO Den Haag a slight but well-defined edge, with the home side appearing better placed overall. That advantage remains narrow rather than decisive, so Fortuna Sittard should have a realistic opportunity to stay involved throughout the match.
The main expectation is for an attacking game, with both teams likely to score. This suggests that defensive control may be difficult to maintain, and the match could develop into a succession of chances at both ends. ADO Den Haag’s home advantage provides the clearest distinction between the sides, but Fortuna Sittard’s prospects of finding the net keep the draw firmly in consideration. The overall outlook therefore favours ADO Den Haag without dismissing a shared result, with a high-scoring pattern more plausible than a tightly managed encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Squad availability for both teams
ADO Den Haag are without the injured Cameron Peupion. Fortuna Sittard list Kristoffer Peterson, Ivan Marquez, Rodrigo Guth, Siebe Wylin, and Sven Simons as injured, while Ole Romeny is suspended.
Recent Eredivisie results
ADO Den Haag stopped a three-match losing streak to start the league season by drawing 2-2 at Feyenoord. Fortuna Sittard enter the game following a 3-2 victory away at FC Groningen.
First Eredivisie meeting in five years
This match marks the first Eredivisie encounter between ADO Den Haag and Fortuna Sittard since ADO Den Haag were relegated five years ago.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.