Sparta Rotterdam — PEC Zwolle: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.2% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.2% / 13.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.0% / 76.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
Sparta Rotterdam
12th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Excelsior 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Utrecht 3:3
- 14.08.2026 away Telstar 3:1
- 09.08.2026 home Feyenoord 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Excelsior 2:3
PEC Zwolle
13th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Nijmegen 1:3
- 22.08.2026 away Heerenveen 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Twente 1:3
- 09.08.2026 home Ajax 0:2
- 17.05.2026 home Feyenoord 0:2
This season: Sparta Rotterdam at home vs PEC Zwolle away
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam · at home | PEC Zwolle · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.37 | 1.12 |
| xG against per match | 2.73 | 1.47 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.03.2026 Sparta Rotterdam 1:1 PEC Zwolle
- 08.11.2025 PEC Zwolle 1:0 Sparta Rotterdam
- 15.03.2025 Sparta Rotterdam 1:1 PEC Zwolle
- 30.11.2024 PEC Zwolle 1:0 Sparta Rotterdam
- 04.02.2024 Sparta Rotterdam 0:2 PEC Zwolle
- 12.08.2023 PEC Zwolle 1:2 Sparta Rotterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle meet in the Eredivisie with the hosts holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The indication points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with Sparta Rotterdam marginally better placed to control the outcome. The 1X signal supports a cautious preference for the home side while leaving room for a draw.
The scoring outlook is more open than the result outlook. Both teams are likely to score, and the match is projected to produce several attacking moments at both ends. That combination makes a narrow Sparta Rotterdam win or a draw the most plausible scenarios, with 1-1 and 2-1 fitting the balance of the forecast. A 2-0 home victory is also possible if Sparta Rotterdam make better use of their chances, but PEC Zwolle should remain involved for much of the match.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results before the encounter
In their previous Eredivisie fixtures, Sparta Rotterdam suffered a 2-1 defeat against Excelsior, while PEC Zwolle lost 3-1 to NEC Nijmegen.
Player availability news
Sparta Rotterdam are without Robin van Cruijsen, while PEC Zwolle are missing Younes Namli and defender Jan Burger.
Head-to-head record
PEC Zwolle are undefeated in their last five meetings against Sparta Rotterdam, securing three victories and two draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.