Sparta Rotterdam — PEC Zwolle: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.2% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.2% / 13.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.0% / 76.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle meet in the Eredivisie with the hosts holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The indication points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with Sparta Rotterdam marginally better placed to control the outcome. The 1X signal supports a cautious preference for the home side while leaving room for a draw.
The scoring outlook is more open than the result outlook. Both teams are likely to score, and the match is projected to produce several attacking moments at both ends. That combination makes a narrow Sparta Rotterdam win or a draw the most plausible scenarios, with 1-1 and 2-1 fitting the balance of the forecast. A 2-0 home victory is also possible if Sparta Rotterdam make better use of their chances, but PEC Zwolle should remain involved for much of the match.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results before the encounter
In their previous Eredivisie fixtures, Sparta Rotterdam suffered a 2-1 defeat against Excelsior, while PEC Zwolle lost 3-1 to NEC Nijmegen.
Player availability news
Sparta Rotterdam are without Robin van Cruijsen, while PEC Zwolle are missing Younes Namli and defender Jan Burger.
Head-to-head record
PEC Zwolle are undefeated in their last five meetings against Sparta Rotterdam, securing three victories and two draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.