West Ham United — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.2% |
| 12 | 78.3% | |
| X2 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 5.50 → now 6.00 |
Match preview
West Ham United go into this Championship fixture with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Wrexham AFC. The available assessment points towards the hosts being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should be approached with some caution rather than treated as one-sided. The main signal favours a home win, but it does not remove the possibility of a competitive contest.
The game is also projected to have an open scoring profile, with a high-scoring match more likely than a tightly controlled encounter. Whether both teams find the net is less certain, as that aspect is judged to be finely balanced. West Ham United should therefore be expected to create the more convincing attacking platform, while Wrexham AFC still have a realistic opportunity to contribute to the scoreline. Overall, the balance is towards West Ham United, with the match carrying enough attacking potential to remain competitive.
What matters before kick-off
West Ham playing second match in three days
West Ham United host Wrexham just 72 hours after securing a 3-2 away win against Bolton Wanderers on Tuesday evening.
First-ever visit to London Stadium for Wrexham
This match marks Wrexham's first-ever visit to London Stadium and the teams' first meeting since an FA Cup tie in January 1997.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.