West Ham United — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.2% |
| 12 | 78.3% | |
| X2 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
West Ham United
3rd place · 11 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 away Bolton 3:2
- 05.09.2026 home Derby 3:0
- 01.09.2026 home Wolves 4:2
- 29.08.2026 away Watford 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Charlton 1:2
Wrexham AFC
14th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 home Burnley 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Swansea 0:0
- 02.09.2026 away Millwall 3:0
- 28.08.2026 home Birmingham 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Watford 1:1
This season: West Ham United at home vs Wrexham AFC away
| Metric | West Ham United · at home | Wrexham AFC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 1–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| xG for per match | 2.90 | 1.03 |
| xG against per match | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
West Ham United go into this Championship fixture with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Wrexham AFC. The available assessment points towards the hosts being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should be approached with some caution rather than treated as one-sided. The main signal favours a home win, but it does not remove the possibility of a competitive contest.
The game is also projected to have an open scoring profile, with a high-scoring match more likely than a tightly controlled encounter. Whether both teams find the net is less certain, as that aspect is judged to be finely balanced. West Ham United should therefore be expected to create the more convincing attacking platform, while Wrexham AFC still have a realistic opportunity to contribute to the scoreline. Overall, the balance is towards West Ham United, with the match carrying enough attacking potential to remain competitive.
What matters before kick-off
West Ham playing second match in three days
West Ham United host Wrexham just 72 hours after securing a 3-2 away win against Bolton Wanderers on Tuesday evening.
First-ever visit to London Stadium for Wrexham
This match marks Wrexham's first-ever visit to London Stadium and the teams' first meeting since an FA Cup tie in January 1997.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.