Bolton Wanderers — Cardiff City: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.4% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 63.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.8% / 32.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.6% / 13.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Bolton Wanderers
21st place · 4 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 home West Ham 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Millwall 0:4
- 01.09.2026 away Sheffield United 2:3
- 29.08.2026 home Lincoln 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away QPR 0:0
Cardiff City
20th place · 4 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 home Stoke 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Portsmouth 0:2
- 02.09.2026 away QPR 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Sheffield United 2:2
- 22.08.2026 away Derby 2:2
This season: Bolton Wanderers at home vs Cardiff City away
| Metric | Bolton Wanderers · at home | Cardiff City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.43 | 1.31 |
| xG against per match | 1.47 | 2.15 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.67 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Cardiff City 2:0 Bolton Wanderers
- 25.10.2025 Bolton Wanderers 1:0 Cardiff City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bolton Wanderers and Cardiff City appear evenly matched ahead of their Championship meeting. The assessment carries moderate confidence, so there is no clear basis for separating the sides significantly before kickoff. Both teams have comparable prospects in the match, which points toward a contest where small tactical or individual moments could have a meaningful influence.
The scoring outlook suggests an open game rather than a cautious encounter. Bolton Wanderers and Cardiff City are both likely to find the net, making the BTTS market the main signal from the available analysis. That expectation should be balanced against the uncertainty around the overall result: either side could gain the advantage, while a draw is also consistent with the closely matched profile. The most relevant theme is therefore attacking involvement from both teams, rather than a strong preference for one winner.
What matters before kick-off
Return to Championship
Bolton Wanderers returned to the Championship for the 2026–27 season following promotion from League One via the play-offs in the 2025–26 campaign.
Cardiff Back in Second Tier
Cardiff City returned to the Championship for the 2026–27 season after earning promotion from League One in the previous campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.