West Bromwich Albion — Queens Park Rangers: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.6% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.05 → now 2.20 |
| W2 | was 3.60 → now 3.25 |
Match preview
West Bromwich Albion have a slight but credible edge over Queens Park Rangers in this Championship meeting. The assessment points towards a competitive match in which the hosts are more likely to avoid defeat, though the margin between the teams is not expected to be substantial. West Bromwich Albion should look to impose enough control to create the clearer opportunities, while Queens Park Rangers remain capable of making the contest uncomfortable.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination suggests an open but balanced encounter rather than a one-sided performance. A draw remains a realistic possibility, particularly if Queens Park Rangers manage to respond effectively when West Bromwich Albion take the initiative. Overall, the hosts hold the stronger position, but the match could remain finely balanced deep into the second half.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results for both teams
West Bromwich Albion enter the fixture following back-to-back 1-0 victories over Watford and Derby County. Queens Park Rangers played out a 0-0 draw away at Charlton Athletic in midweek.
West Brom's home record against QPR
West Bromwich Albion are on a seven-match unbeaten run at home against Queens Park Rangers (W5, D2). QPR's last victory at The Hawthorns was a 4-1 win in April 2015.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.