Watford FC — Stoke City: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.5% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Watford FC
13th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 home Preston 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Brom 0:1
- 01.09.2026 away Swansea 0:2
- 29.08.2026 home West Ham 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Wrexham 1:1
Stoke City
15th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 away Cardiff 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Charlton 4:0
- 01.09.2026 home Norwich 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Wolves 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Southampton 1:3
This season: Watford FC at home vs Stoke City away
| Metric | Watford FC · at home | Stoke City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.22 | 0.97 |
| xG against per match | 1.68 | 2.86 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Stoke City 3:1 Watford FC
- 20.12.2025 Watford FC 1:0 Stoke City
- 01.03.2025 Stoke City 0:0 Watford FC
- 17.08.2024 Watford FC 3:0 Stoke City
- 29.12.2023 Watford FC 1:1 Stoke City
- 19.08.2023 Stoke City 1:0 Watford FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Watford FC and Stoke City meet in a Championship fixture that looks closely balanced. Neither side has a clearly defined advantage in the available assessment, so the match may be shaped by small differences in control, chance quality and efficiency in the final third. The overall outlook is for a medium-scoring contest rather than a game dominated by either defence or attack.
Both teams are likely to score, which points toward an open exchange of chances while still leaving room for a cautious approach during key phases. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1 and 2:1, although a goalless draw also remains within the range of outcomes. With the teams considered evenly matched and confidence only moderate, Watford FC may have a slight edge from playing at home, but Stoke City should remain competitive throughout.
What matters before kick-off
Watford Injury Updates
Edoardo Bove suffered a knee ligament injury and will remain sidelined for Watford until after the international break, while Martín Payero is being assessed after sustaining an adductor issue in midweek.
Midweek EFL Championship Results
Watford come into the match following a 2-1 midweek Championship victory over Preston North End, while Stoke City recorded a 1-1 draw away at Cardiff City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.