Charlton Athletic — Portsmouth FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.1% |
| 12 | 69.8% | |
| X2 | 65.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.5% / 25.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.8% / 74.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Charlton Athletic and Portsmouth FC meet in the Championship on 12 September 2026 in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear overall advantage, with the outcome carrying moderate confidence. That points to a game where small details and the balance between defensive discipline and attacking initiative may have a meaningful influence.
The scoring outlook is medium, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains uncertain. The most prominent scoreline is 1:1, with 0:0 and 1:0 also identified among the likely outcomes, reinforcing the expectation of a relatively close match rather than an open, high-scoring encounter. Charlton Athletic may have a slight protective edge from playing at home, but Portsmouth FC are assessed as capable of keeping the contest balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Charlton Athletic Team News
Danny McNamara and Millenic Alli returned to Charlton Athletic's starting line-up against Portsmouth. Charlie Kelman was named on the bench for the first time this season after recovering from a shoulder injury, while Micah Mbick missed out due to a hamstring injury.
Portsmouth FC Injury News
Portsmouth's Luke Brooke-Smith was ruled out long-term after suffering a dislocated ankle and fibula fracture in training. He joins Josh Murphy, Connor Ogilvie, Keshi Anderson, Márk Kosznovszky, Franco Umeh and Thomas Waddingham on the sidelines.
Historical Opponents Fact
Since entering the Football League in 1920, Portsmouth FC have faced Charlton Athletic more times than any other opponent.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.