Middlesbrough FC — Norwich City: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.3% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 48.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.8% / 77.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Middlesbrough FC
7th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away QPR 1:0
- 02.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home West Brom 3:1
- 22.08.2026 away Blackburn 1:2
- 15.08.2026 home Lincoln 2:1
Norwich City
10th place · 9 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.09.2026 home Birmingham 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Sheffield United 3:1
- 01.09.2026 away Stoke 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Burnley 4:1
- 22.08.2026 away Millwall 0:3
This season: Middlesbrough FC at home vs Norwich City away
| Metric | Middlesbrough FC · at home | Norwich City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 2.35 | 1.75 |
| xG against per match | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 5.33 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.01.2026 Middlesbrough FC 1:0 Norwich City
- 23.08.2025 Norwich City 1:2 Middlesbrough FC
- 26.04.2025 Middlesbrough FC 0:0 Norwich City
- 27.10.2024 Norwich City 3:3 Middlesbrough FC
- 06.03.2024 Middlesbrough FC 3:1 Norwich City
- 24.10.2023 Norwich City 1:2 Middlesbrough FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Middlesbrough FC have a slight edge over Norwich City in this Championship meeting. The assessment points towards the hosts being better placed, although the margin is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest. Norwich City remain credible opponents, and the balance of the forecast leaves room for a draw as well as a home win.
The main expectation is an open match with both teams likely to score. That points to a game in which attacking moments should be more prominent than a cautious, low-event approach. Middlesbrough FC are favoured to avoid defeat, while Norwich City have enough attacking potential in the assessment to remain involved throughout. The projected scorelines range from a level contest to a narrow home victory, reinforcing the view that the hosts hold the clearer position without separating decisively from the visitors.
What matters before kick-off
Norwich City team news ahead of Middlesbrough trip
Norwich City manager Philippe Clement confirmed there were no new injury concerns following their midweek victory over Birmingham City, with players who were previously omitted returning to contention.
Middlesbrough's League Cup exit
Middlesbrough exited the League Cup in midweek following a 3-0 defeat away to Crystal Palace, with manager Kim Hellberg fielding a heavily rotated side.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.