Preston North End — Lincoln City: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.8% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 58.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.7% / 20.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Preston North End and Lincoln City meet in the Championship in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear superiority, with only a slight lean toward Preston North End avoiding defeat. Confidence is moderate, so the balance of the game could depend on small details rather than a pronounced difference between the teams.
The scoring outlook is medium, while both teams are considered likely to score. That points to a competitive match with opportunities at both ends, without suggesting an exceptionally open encounter. A 1:1 draw is one plausible scoreline, while 2:1 and 1:0 also reflect the narrow margin separating the sides. Preston North End may have a modest advantage from playing at home, but Lincoln City remain capable of making the contest difficult and contributing to the score.
What matters before kick-off
Mason Melia sidelined with injury
Lincoln City forward Mason Melia is set to miss between four and six weeks with a thigh injury ahead of the match against Preston North End.
Lincoln return to Championship action
Lincoln City return to EFL Championship action against Preston North End at Deepdale following their midweek Carabao Cup exit against Bournemouth.
Caleb Wiley interview ahead of Lincoln clash
Preston North End summer signing Caleb Wiley spoke ahead of the match against Lincoln City about returning from injury to score against Bristol City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.