Swansea City — Burnley FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.9% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.15 → now 2.05 |
| W2 | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
Match preview
Swansea City have a slight but credible edge over Burnley FC in this Championship meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the home side may be better placed to avoid defeat, although the balance is not so one-sided that Burnley FC can be discounted. The main protection for Swansea City is the possibility of a draw, making a home win or draw the most consistent reading of the available signals.
The match is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking action rather than an extreme scoreline. Both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the game could develop into an open exchange or stay controlled through the defensive phases. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1 to Swansea City, and 1:0 to Swansea City, which underlines the narrow margin between the teams and leaves the result dependent on how efficiently each side converts its opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek results for both sides
On Tuesday, September 8, Swansea City suffered their first Championship defeat of the season, losing 3-1 away at Southampton. Meanwhile, Burnley came off a 1-1 draw against Wrexham in their midweek fixture.
Swansea City's home defensive record
Swansea City enter this fixture having not conceded a single home goal in the Championship so far this season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.