Swansea City — Burnley FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.9% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Swansea City
4th place · 11 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 away Southampton 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:0
- 01.09.2026 home Watford 2:0
- 29.08.2026 away Derby 3:0
- 22.08.2026 home Sheffield United 0:0
Burnley FC
23rd place · 3 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bristol City 1:2
- 02.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Norwich 1:4
- 23.08.2026 away West Brom 1:3
This season: Swansea City at home vs Burnley FC away
| Metric | Swansea City · at home | Burnley FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.34 | 1.21 |
| xG against per match | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 15.03.2025 Swansea City 0:2 Burnley FC
- 10.11.2024 Burnley FC 1:0 Swansea City
- 02.01.2023 Swansea City 1:2 Burnley FC
- 15.10.2022 Burnley FC 4:0 Swansea City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Swansea City have a slight but credible edge over Burnley FC in this Championship meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the home side may be better placed to avoid defeat, although the balance is not so one-sided that Burnley FC can be discounted. The main protection for Swansea City is the possibility of a draw, making a home win or draw the most consistent reading of the available signals.
The match is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking action rather than an extreme scoreline. Both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the game could develop into an open exchange or stay controlled through the defensive phases. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1 to Swansea City, and 1:0 to Swansea City, which underlines the narrow margin between the teams and leaves the result dependent on how efficiently each side converts its opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek results for both sides
On Tuesday, September 8, Swansea City suffered their first Championship defeat of the season, losing 3-1 away at Southampton. Meanwhile, Burnley came off a 1-1 draw against Wrexham in their midweek fixture.
Swansea City's home defensive record
Swansea City enter this fixture having not conceded a single home goal in the Championship so far this season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.