Derby County — Birmingham City: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.9% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 72.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.0% / 25.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.2% / 72.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Derby County
22nd place · 4 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.09.2026 home West Brom 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 01.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Swansea 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Cardiff 2:2
Birmingham City
14th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.09.2026 away Norwich 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Wolves 2:2
- 01.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
- 28.08.2026 away Wrexham 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Bristol City 2:2
This season: Derby County at home vs Birmingham City away
| Metric | Derby County · at home | Birmingham City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.20 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 1.79 | 0.91 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.67 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Derby County 1:0 Birmingham City
- 26.12.2025 Birmingham City 1:1 Derby County
- 30.01.2022 Derby County 2:2 Birmingham City
- 10.09.2021 Birmingham City 2:0 Derby County
- 24.04.2021 Derby County 1:2 Birmingham City
- 29.12.2020 Birmingham City 0:4 Derby County
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Derby County face Birmingham City in a Championship contest that projects as a close but moderately open encounter. The overall assessment gives Birmingham City a slight edge, although the expected balance of the match leaves room for Derby County to stay competitive. Rather than pointing toward a one-sided game, the outlook suggests that small differences in execution could shape the result.
The scoring expectation is medium, with neither a particularly low-scoring nor an especially open contest indicated. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match could develop with goals at both ends or remain more controlled for one side. The strongest directional signal is toward Birmingham City avoiding defeat, making a draw or an away victory the more supported outcomes. A narrow Birmingham City win and a level score are both consistent with the broader reading, while Derby County will need to make home advantage count to shift the balance.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek Match Results
Derby County enter the match following a 1-0 home defeat to West Bromwich Albion on Wednesday. On the same evening, Birmingham City suffered their first league loss of the season, falling 2-1 away to Norwich City.
Birmingham City Injury Absences
Birmingham City travel to Derby without several players due to injury, including Lee Buchanan, Marc Leonard, and Max Bird.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.