Derby County — Birmingham City: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.9% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 72.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.0% / 25.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.2% / 72.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Derby County face Birmingham City in a Championship contest that projects as a close but moderately open encounter. The overall assessment gives Birmingham City a slight edge, although the expected balance of the match leaves room for Derby County to stay competitive. Rather than pointing toward a one-sided game, the outlook suggests that small differences in execution could shape the result.
The scoring expectation is medium, with neither a particularly low-scoring nor an especially open contest indicated. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match could develop with goals at both ends or remain more controlled for one side. The strongest directional signal is toward Birmingham City avoiding defeat, making a draw or an away victory the more supported outcomes. A narrow Birmingham City win and a level score are both consistent with the broader reading, while Derby County will need to make home advantage count to shift the balance.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek Match Results
Derby County enter the match following a 1-0 home defeat to West Bromwich Albion on Wednesday. On the same evening, Birmingham City suffered their first league loss of the season, falling 2-1 away to Norwich City.
Birmingham City Injury Absences
Birmingham City travel to Derby without several players due to injury, including Lee Buchanan, Marc Leonard, and Max Bird.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.