West Ham United — Derby County: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.9% |
| 12 | 82.5% | |
| X2 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.1% / 16.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.5% / 77.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
West Ham United go into this Championship meeting with a clear edge over Derby County, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. The available assessment points towards a home win as the main outcome, with West Ham United expected to impose more of the match and create the stronger attacking threat.
The game is also rated as potentially high-scoring, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains balanced. That combination leaves room for different match patterns: West Ham United could control the contest and keep Derby County at arm’s length, but Derby County may still have opportunities to contribute to an open game. The most likely scorelines are 2:0, 2:1 and 1:0, reflecting a range from a controlled home performance to a narrower result. Overall, West Ham United appear better placed, but the evidence supports a measured rather than categorical assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Match Results
West Ham United enter the game following a 4-2 Championship victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers. Meanwhile, Derby County secured a 2-0 away win against Portsmouth.
West Ham Starting XI Changes
West Ham United head coach Nuno Espírito Santo made two changes to his starting lineup for the match against Derby County, bringing in Taty Castellanos and Joël Veltman.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.