West Ham United — Derby County: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.9% |
| 12 | 82.5% | |
| X2 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.1% / 16.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.5% / 77.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
West Ham United
13th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 home Wolves 4:2
- 29.08.2026 away Watford 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Charlton 1:2
- 16.08.2026 away Burnley 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Leeds 3:0
Derby County
17th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Swansea 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Cardiff 2:2
- 15.08.2026 away Charlton 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home Sheffield United 1:2
This season: West Ham United at home vs Derby County away
| Metric | West Ham United · at home | Derby County · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.45 | 0.77 |
| xG against per match | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.50 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
West Ham United go into this Championship meeting with a clear edge over Derby County, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. The available assessment points towards a home win as the main outcome, with West Ham United expected to impose more of the match and create the stronger attacking threat.
The game is also rated as potentially high-scoring, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains balanced. That combination leaves room for different match patterns: West Ham United could control the contest and keep Derby County at arm’s length, but Derby County may still have opportunities to contribute to an open game. The most likely scorelines are 2:0, 2:1 and 1:0, reflecting a range from a controlled home performance to a narrower result. Overall, West Ham United appear better placed, but the evidence supports a measured rather than categorical assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Match Results
West Ham United enter the game following a 4-2 Championship victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers. Meanwhile, Derby County secured a 2-0 away win against Portsmouth.
West Ham Starting XI Changes
West Ham United head coach Nuno Espírito Santo made two changes to his starting lineup for the match against Derby County, bringing in Taty Castellanos and Joël Veltman.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.