Queens Park Rangers — Middlesbrough FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.6% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 69.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.7% / 63.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Queens Park Rangers host Middlesbrough FC in a Championship meeting that looks relatively balanced, although the visitors carry a slight edge. The available assessment points towards a competitive game rather than a one-sided contest, with neither side clearly separated from the other. Middlesbrough FC appear marginally better placed to avoid defeat, while Queens Park Rangers should remain capable of influencing the match on home ground.
The scoring outlook is medium, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests a game shaped by chances at both ends rather than a tightly closed encounter. A draw remains a credible possibility, but the overall signal favours Middlesbrough FC in the double-chance market, meaning the visitors have the stronger position across the main result scenarios. Queens Park Rangers will need to limit the spaces available in transition and make their possession count, while Middlesbrough FC can look to apply steady pressure without overcommitting.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and squad availability
Queens Park Rangers are without injured defender Boy Kemper and forward Karamoko Dembele. Middlesbrough are missing defender Alex Bangura.
Head-to-head streak
Middlesbrough have won each of their last five meetings with Queens Park Rangers across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.