Portsmouth FC — Cardiff City: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.7% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.4% / 16.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Portsmouth FC
21st place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 home Derby 0:2
- 29.08.2026 away Bristol City 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Lincoln 3:1
- 15.08.2026 home QPR 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home Birmingham 1:1
Cardiff City
19th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 away QPR 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Sheffield United 2:2
- 22.08.2026 away Derby 2:2
- 17.08.2026 home Wrexham 1:1
- 02.05.2026 away Mansfield 4:5
This season: Portsmouth FC at home vs Cardiff City away
| Metric | Portsmouth FC · at home | Cardiff City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.51 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 1.31 | 2.19 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.50 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 11.02.2025 Portsmouth FC 2:1 Cardiff City
- 22.10.2024 Cardiff City 2:0 Portsmouth FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Portsmouth FC and Cardiff City meet in a Championship fixture that looks closely balanced on the available signals. Neither side holds a clear overall advantage, so the match may be shaped by small tactical differences and how effectively each team manages the key moments. The moderate confidence reflects a contest where the outcome is difficult to separate in advance.
The scoring outlook points towards an open game, with both Portsmouth FC and Cardiff City likely to find opportunities in the final third. That makes a draw, particularly a 1:1 scoreline, a plausible scenario, although a narrow victory for either side also fits the overall picture. Portsmouth FC may have a slight protective edge from playing at home, but Cardiff City remain well placed to compete and respond if the match becomes stretched.
What matters before kick-off
Portsmouth injury updates
Portsmouth winger Josh Murphy is sidelined with a groin injury. Striker Thomas Waddingham is also ruled out due to an ankle problem.
Midweek Championship results
In midweek Championship action, Portsmouth suffered a 2-0 home loss against Derby County. Cardiff City were also beaten, falling 2-1 away to Queens Park Rangers.
Early season standings
Both Portsmouth and Cardiff City head into this match having collected three points from their opening four Championship fixtures of the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.