Portsmouth FC — Cardiff City: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.7% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.4% / 16.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portsmouth FC and Cardiff City meet in a Championship fixture that looks closely balanced on the available signals. Neither side holds a clear overall advantage, so the match may be shaped by small tactical differences and how effectively each team manages the key moments. The moderate confidence reflects a contest where the outcome is difficult to separate in advance.
The scoring outlook points towards an open game, with both Portsmouth FC and Cardiff City likely to find opportunities in the final third. That makes a draw, particularly a 1:1 scoreline, a plausible scenario, although a narrow victory for either side also fits the overall picture. Portsmouth FC may have a slight protective edge from playing at home, but Cardiff City remain well placed to compete and respond if the match becomes stretched.
What matters before kick-off
Portsmouth injury updates
Portsmouth winger Josh Murphy is sidelined with a groin injury. Striker Thomas Waddingham is also ruled out due to an ankle problem.
Midweek Championship results
In midweek Championship action, Portsmouth suffered a 2-0 home loss against Derby County. Cardiff City were also beaten, falling 2-1 away to Queens Park Rangers.
Early season standings
Both Portsmouth and Cardiff City head into this match having collected three points from their opening four Championship fixtures of the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.