Burnley FC — Bristol City: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Burnley FC have a slight but clear edge over Bristol City in this Championship meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the home side are marginally better placed, while Bristol City remain capable of making the contest difficult. The balance of the signal favours Burnley FC avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a one-sided game.
The scoring outlook is moderate, with the match projected to produce a controlled number of chances rather than an especially open contest. There is no strong indication that both teams will score, making that aspect difficult to separate. A narrow home win or a draw are the most consistent scenarios, with scorelines such as 1-0, 2-1, or 1-1 fitting the overall profile. Bristol City should have opportunities, but Burnley FC hold the stronger position in the pre-match assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form heading into the clash
Burnley enter the fixture following a 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough on Wednesday, while Bristol City travel to Lancashire having won their previous two Championship matches, including a 3-1 away victory over Preston North End.
Burnley's dominant head-to-head record
Burnley have won their previous nine meetings against Bristol City, a streak stretching back to 2012.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.