Burnley FC — Bristol City: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Burnley FC
23rd place · 2 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Norwich 1:4
- 23.08.2026 away West Brom 1:3
- 16.08.2026 home West Ham 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Wolves 1:1
Bristol City
7th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 away Preston 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Portsmouth 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
- 15.08.2026 home Millwall 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home Stoke 2:0
This season: Burnley FC at home vs Bristol City away
| Metric | Burnley FC · at home | Bristol City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.48 | 1.64 |
| xG against per match | 1.28 | 1.94 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 29.03.2025 Burnley FC 1:0 Bristol City
- 23.11.2024 Bristol City 0:1 Burnley FC
- 29.04.2023 Bristol City 1:2 Burnley FC
- 17.09.2022 Burnley FC 2:1 Bristol City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Burnley FC have a slight but clear edge over Bristol City in this Championship meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the home side are marginally better placed, while Bristol City remain capable of making the contest difficult. The balance of the signal favours Burnley FC avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a one-sided game.
The scoring outlook is moderate, with the match projected to produce a controlled number of chances rather than an especially open contest. There is no strong indication that both teams will score, making that aspect difficult to separate. A narrow home win or a draw are the most consistent scenarios, with scorelines such as 1-0, 2-1, or 1-1 fitting the overall profile. Bristol City should have opportunities, but Burnley FC hold the stronger position in the pre-match assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form heading into the clash
Burnley enter the fixture following a 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough on Wednesday, while Bristol City travel to Lancashire having won their previous two Championship matches, including a 3-1 away victory over Preston North End.
Burnley's dominant head-to-head record
Burnley have won their previous nine meetings against Bristol City, a streak stretching back to 2012.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.