Millwall FC — Bolton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Millwall FC
11th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Southampton 1:5
- 22.08.2026 home Norwich 3:0
- 15.08.2026 away Bristol City 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Oxford 2:0
Bolton Wanderers
16th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 away Sheffield United 2:3
- 29.08.2026 home Lincoln 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away QPR 0:0
- 15.08.2026 home Preston 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Luton 2:3
This season: Millwall FC at home vs Bolton Wanderers away
| Metric | Millwall FC · at home | Bolton Wanderers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.47 | 1.05 |
| xG against per match | 0.95 | 2.01 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Millwall FC have a slight edge over Bolton Wanderers in this Championship meeting, with the available assessment favouring the home side while still leaving a draw as a realistic outcome. The projected game profile points towards a medium-scoring contest rather than an open shootout, suggesting that control and efficiency in key moments could be important.
Both teams scoring is considered an uncertain possibility, so neither side has a clearly defined advantage in that area. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1, which reflect a closely contested match with Millwall FC marginally better placed. Overall, the assessment supports a result protecting against a Bolton Wanderers win, but it does not indicate a predictable or one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Millwall's recent result
Heading into the match against Bolton, Millwall suffered a 3-0 home defeat against Wrexham in the Championship.
Bolton's recent result
Bolton Wanderers entered matchweek 5 following a 3-2 away defeat against Sheffield United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.