Millwall FC — Bolton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Millwall FC have a slight edge over Bolton Wanderers in this Championship meeting, with the available assessment favouring the home side while still leaving a draw as a realistic outcome. The projected game profile points towards a medium-scoring contest rather than an open shootout, suggesting that control and efficiency in key moments could be important.
Both teams scoring is considered an uncertain possibility, so neither side has a clearly defined advantage in that area. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1, which reflect a closely contested match with Millwall FC marginally better placed. Overall, the assessment supports a result protecting against a Bolton Wanderers win, but it does not indicate a predictable or one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Millwall's recent result
Heading into the match against Bolton, Millwall suffered a 3-0 home defeat against Wrexham in the Championship.
Bolton's recent result
Bolton Wanderers entered matchweek 5 following a 3-2 away defeat against Sheffield United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.