West Bromwich Albion — Watford FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.5% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
West Bromwich Albion
8th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 home Charlton 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Middlesbrough 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Burnley 3:1
- 15.08.2026 away Norwich 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Sheffield Weds 1:2
Watford FC
15th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 away Swansea 0:2
- 29.08.2026 home West Ham 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Wrexham 1:1
- 16.08.2026 home Southampton 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Coventry 0:4
This season: West Bromwich Albion at home vs Watford FC away
| Metric | West Bromwich Albion · at home | Watford FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.10 | 0.77 |
| xG against per match | 0.79 | 2.32 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.04.2026 West Bromwich Albion 3:0 Watford FC
- 22.10.2025 Watford FC 2:1 West Bromwich Albion
- 12.04.2025 West Bromwich Albion 2:1 Watford FC
- 15.12.2024 Watford FC 2:1 West Bromwich Albion
- 01.04.2024 West Bromwich Albion 2:2 Watford FC
- 20.09.2023 Watford FC 2:2 West Bromwich Albion
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
West Bromwich Albion have a slight edge over Watford FC in this Championship meeting, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage. That points towards a match in which West Bromwich Albion may be better placed to control key phases, although the margin between the sides does not suggest a one-sided contest. Watford FC remain capable of making the game competitive, particularly if they can disrupt the hosts’ rhythm and create a balanced midfield battle.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring, with the most plausible scorelines indicating a narrow home win or a draw. Both teams scoring is viewed as evenly balanced, so there is no clear indication that either side will definitely find the net. Overall, the assessment favours West Bromwich Albion while also allowing for Watford FC to avoid defeat, making the home win or draw range the more cautious interpretation of the matchup.
What matters before kick-off
West Bromwich Albion home streak
A 1-1 draw against Charlton Athletic extended West Bromwich Albion's unbeaten home run at The Hawthorns to nine matches.
Watford's previous result
Watford head into the fixture following a 2-0 defeat away at Swansea City on Tuesday.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.