West Bromwich Albion — Burnley FC: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.6% |
| 12 | 71.9% | |
| X2 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.2% / 86.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.4% / 94.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
West Bromwich Albion
10th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Norwich 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Sheffield Weds 1:2
- 25.04.2026 home Ipswich 0:0
- 21.04.2026 home Watford 3:0
- 18.04.2026 away Preston 2:0
Burnley FC
17th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home West Ham 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Wolves 1:1
- 18.05.2026 away Arsenal 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Aston Villa 2:2
- 01.05.2026 away Leeds 1:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.03.2025 Burnley FC 1:1 West Bromwich Albion
- 07.11.2024 West Bromwich Albion 0:0 Burnley FC
- 20.01.2023 Burnley FC 2:1 West Bromwich Albion
- 02.09.2022 West Bromwich Albion 1:1 Burnley FC
- 20.02.2021 Burnley FC 0:0 West Bromwich Albion
- 19.10.2020 West Bromwich Albion 0:0 Burnley FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
West Bromwich Albion and Burnley FC appear evenly matched ahead of their Championship meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts a slight practical edge through the possibility of avoiding defeat, but the moderate confidence level points to a contest where the balance could shift during the match rather than a clearly defined advantage for either side.
The game is expected to sit in a medium-scoring range, suggesting enough attacking threat for chances at both ends without pointing to an open, high-scoring encounter. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, with that outcome assessed as finely balanced. West Bromwich Albion may have the stronger position in a cautious result-focused reading, particularly with home advantage, but Burnley FC remain capable of making the match competitive. A draw or a narrow home victory fits the overall profile better than a decisive result.
What matters before kick-off
Aune Heggebo handed two-match suspension
West Bromwich Albion striker Aune Heggebo was handed a two-match ban by the FA for successful deception of a match official after scoring a handball goal against Norwich City. As a result, the forward is unavailable for the match against Burnley.
Championship opening matchday results
West Bromwich Albion began their Championship season with a 2-1 away victory against Norwich City. Burnley opened their league campaign with a 2-2 draw against West Ham United, fighting back from two goals down late in the match.
Recent head-to-head draw trend
Five of the last six encounters between West Bromwich Albion and Burnley have ended in draws. Furthermore, West Bromwich Albion have not beaten Burnley in a Championship fixture since February 2008.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.