Werder Bremen — TSG Hoffenheim: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
32.4%
Home win
Werder Bremen
X
24.3%
Draw
W2
43.4%
Away win
TSG Hoffenheim
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.7%
Both teams to score
Yes71.7%
Totals 2.5
Over70.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.6% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 67.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.7% / 28.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.9% / 29.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.6% / 69.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
Goal distribution model
Werder Bremen × TSG Hoffenheim
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.9%
0:1
3.7%
0:2
5.0%
0:3
3.3%
0:4
1.6%
0:5
0.6%
1
1:0
3.0%
1:1
9.9%
1:2
8.4%
1:3
5.5%
1:4
2.7%
1:5
1.1%
2
2:0
3.7%
2:1
7.2%
2:2
7.1%
2:3
4.7%
2:4
2.3%
2:5
0.9%
3
3:0
2.1%
3:1
4.1%
3:2
4.0%
3:3
2.7%
3:4
1.3%
3:5
0.5%
4
4:0
0.9%
4:1
1.7%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.6%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.9%
1:28.4%
2:17.2%
2:27.1%
1:35.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Werder Bremen
6th place · 12 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Mainz 3:2
- 17.10.2026 home Paderborn 2:2
- 09.10.2026 away Dortmund 2:2
- 19.09.2026 home Augsburg 3:2
- 12.09.2026 away FC Koln 1:1
TSG Hoffenheim
10th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Leverkusen 3:0
- 18.10.2026 away M'gladbach 2:1
- 10.10.2026 home Hamburg 2:3
- 20.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:3
- 12.09.2026 home Stuttgart 2:1
This season: Werder Bremen at home vs TSG Hoffenheim away
| Metric | Werder Bremen · at home | TSG Hoffenheim · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 2.31 | 1.73 |
| xG against per match | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.67 | 4.67 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Werder Bremen wins1
Draws0
TSG Hoffenheim wins5
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 09.05.2026 TSG Hoffenheim 1:0 Werder Bremen
- 27.01.2026 Werder Bremen 0:2 TSG Hoffenheim
- 16.02.2025 Werder Bremen 1:3 TSG Hoffenheim
- 29.09.2024 TSG Hoffenheim 3:4 Werder Bremen
- 03.03.2024 TSG Hoffenheim 2:1 Werder Bremen
- 07.10.2023 Werder Bremen 2:3 TSG Hoffenheim
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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