Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
54.8%
Home win
Bayer Leverkusen
X
21.4%
Draw
W2
23.8%
Away win
VfB Stuttgart
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1278.6%
Both teams to score
Yes72.4%
Totals 2.5
Over75.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.2% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.0% / 25.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.5% / 64.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
Goal distribution model
Bayer Leverkusen × VfB Stuttgart
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.0%
0:1
2.1%
0:2
2.4%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
3.7%
1:1
8.3%
1:2
5.7%
1:3
2.9%
1:4
1.1%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.6%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
6.7%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
4.4%
3:1
6.8%
3:2
5.3%
3:3
2.7%
3:4
1.1%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
2.6%
4:1
4.0%
4:2
3.1%
4:3
1.6%
4:4
0.6%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
1.2%
5:1
1.9%
5:2
1.5%
5:3
0.8%
5:4
0.3%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
2:18.6%
1:18.3%
3:16.8%
2:26.7%
1:25.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Bayer Leverkusen
4th place · 13 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Hoffenheim 0:3
- 18.10.2026 home Freiburg 2:1
- 10.10.2026 away Mainz 4:3
- 20.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 2:0
- 12.09.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
VfB Stuttgart
15th place · 6 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 home M'gladbach 2:3
- 17.10.2026 away Hamburg 0:1
- 10.10.2026 away Paderborn 2:0
- 19.09.2026 home Dortmund 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 1:2
This season: Bayer Leverkusen at home vs VfB Stuttgart away
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen · at home | VfB Stuttgart · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.34 | 1.93 |
| xG against per match | 0.86 | 2.57 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Bayer Leverkusen wins1
Draws3
VfB Stuttgart wins2
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 09.05.2026 VfB Stuttgart 3:1 Bayer Leverkusen
- 10.01.2026 Bayer Leverkusen 1:4 VfB Stuttgart
- 16.03.2025 VfB Stuttgart 3:4 Bayer Leverkusen
- 01.11.2024 Bayer Leverkusen 0:0 VfB Stuttgart
- 27.04.2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 VfB Stuttgart
- 10.12.2023 VfB Stuttgart 1:1 Bayer Leverkusen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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