Bayern Munich — Borussia Dortmund: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
72.9%
Home win
Bayern Munich
X
15.3%
Draw
W2
11.8%
Away win
Borussia Dortmund
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X88.2%
Both teams to score
Yes66.3%
Totals 2.5
Over78.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.2% |
| 12 | 84.7% | |
| X2 | 27.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.3% / 33.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.9% / 2.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
Goal distribution model
Bayern Munich × Borussia Dortmund
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.1%
0:1
1.4%
0:2
1.1%
0:3
0.4%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
4.2%
1:1
6.0%
1:2
3.3%
1:3
1.3%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
6.9%
2:1
8.2%
2:2
4.9%
2:3
1.9%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.8%
3:1
8.1%
3:2
4.8%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
5.1%
4:1
6.0%
4:2
3.6%
4:3
1.4%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
3.0%
5:1
3.6%
5:2
2.1%
5:3
0.8%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
2:18.2%
3:18.1%
2:06.9%
3:06.8%
1:16.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Bayern Munich
1st place · 17 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Freiburg 3:1
- 17.10.2026 home RB Leipzig 6:1
- 10.10.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 18.09.2026 home Union Berlin 7:0
- 13.09.2026 away Elversberg 2:1
Borussia Dortmund
2nd place · 17 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 1:0
- 17.10.2026 away Union Berlin 0:0
- 09.10.2026 home Werder Bremen 2:2
- 19.09.2026 away Stuttgart 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Paderborn 3:0
This season: Bayern Munich at home vs Borussia Dortmund away
| Metric | Bayern Munich · at home | Borussia Dortmund · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 2–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 6.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| xG for per match | 3.74 | 1.49 |
| xG against per match | 0.65 | 1.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 13.67 | 2.67 |
| Corners per match | 9.67 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Bayern Munich wins3
Draws2
Borussia Dortmund wins1
Goals per match3.33
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 28.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund 2:3 Bayern Munich
- 18.10.2025 Bayern Munich 2:1 Borussia Dortmund
- 12.04.2025 Bayern Munich 2:2 Borussia Dortmund
- 30.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund 1:1 Bayern Munich
- 30.03.2024 Bayern Munich 0:2 Borussia Dortmund
- 04.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund 0:4 Bayern Munich
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 5.75 → now 5.50 |
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