Schalke 04 — RB Leipzig: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
22.5%
Home win
Schalke 04
X
24.8%
Draw
W2
52.7%
Away win
RB Leipzig
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X277.5%
Both teams to score
Yes68.7%
Totals 2.5
Over69.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 47.3% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 77.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.0% / 31.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.0% / 85.0% |
Goal distribution model
Schalke 04 × RB Leipzig
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.9%
0:1
4.1%
0:2
6.6%
0:3
4.8%
0:4
2.6%
0:5
1.1%
1
1:0
1.9%
1:1
10.7%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
6.7%
1:4
3.6%
1:5
1.6%
2
2:0
2.8%
2:1
6.0%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
4.7%
2:4
2.5%
2:5
1.1%
3
3:0
1.3%
3:1
2.8%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
2.2%
3:4
1.2%
3:5
0.5%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.7%
1:29.3%
1:36.7%
0:26.6%
2:26.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Schalke 04
16th place · 6 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away FC Koln 0:0
- 17.10.2026 home Mainz 0:1
- 11.10.2026 away Freiburg 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Elversberg 0:0
- 11.09.2026 away Union Berlin 3:1
RB Leipzig
5th place · 12 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Elversberg 4:0
- 17.10.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:6
- 10.10.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 6:0
- 20.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:2
- 13.09.2026 home Hamburg 5:0
This season: Schalke 04 at home vs RB Leipzig away
| Metric | Schalke 04 · at home | RB Leipzig · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.33 | 3.67 |
| xG for per match | 0.55 | 1.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.63 | 2.21 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Schalke 04 wins1
Draws0
RB Leipzig wins5
Goals per match4.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
- 27.05.2023 RB Leipzig 4:2 Schalke 04
- 24.01.2023 Schalke 04 1:6 RB Leipzig
- 06.02.2021 Schalke 04 0:3 RB Leipzig
- 03.10.2020 RB Leipzig 4:0 Schalke 04
- 22.02.2020 Schalke 04 0:5 RB Leipzig
- 28.09.2019 RB Leipzig 1:3 Schalke 04
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.90 → now 4.10 |
| X | was 4.00 → now 3.75 |
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