FC Augsburg — SC Freiburg: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
32.2%
Home win
FC Augsburg
X
24.5%
Draw
W2
43.2%
Away win
SC Freiburg
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.5%
Both teams to score
Yes68.5%
Totals 2.5
Over67.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.8% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 67.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Goal distribution model
FC Augsburg × SC Freiburg
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.3%
0:1
4.7%
0:2
5.5%
0:3
3.4%
0:4
1.6%
0:5
0.6%
1
1:0
3.9%
1:1
10.5%
1:2
8.7%
1:3
5.4%
1:4
2.5%
1:5
0.9%
2
2:0
4.0%
2:1
7.5%
2:2
7.0%
2:3
4.3%
2:4
2.0%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
2.1%
3:1
4.0%
3:2
3.7%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
1.1%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.6%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.5%
1:28.7%
2:17.5%
2:27.0%
0:25.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
FC Augsburg
9th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Union Berlin 1:1
- 17.10.2026 away Elversberg 3:4
- 10.10.2026 home Bayern Munich 2:2
- 19.09.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Leverkusen 2:2
SC Freiburg
3rd place · 13 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Bayern Munich 1:3
- 18.10.2026 away Leverkusen 1:2
- 11.10.2026 home Schalke 04 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home M'gladbach 5:0
This season: FC Augsburg at home vs SC Freiburg away
| Metric | FC Augsburg · at home | SC Freiburg · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–3–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 2.23 | 1.85 |
| xG against per match | 2.60 | 1.53 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.75 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Augsburg wins2
Draws2
SC Freiburg wins2
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 18.01.2026 FC Augsburg 2:2 SC Freiburg
- 23.08.2025 SC Freiburg 1:3 FC Augsburg
- 02.03.2025 FC Augsburg 0:0 SC Freiburg
- 19.10.2024 SC Freiburg 3:1 FC Augsburg
- 25.02.2024 FC Augsburg 2:1 SC Freiburg
- 01.10.2023 SC Freiburg 2:0 FC Augsburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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