SV 07 Elversberg — FSV Mainz: Win probabilities, 30.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
29.0%
Home win
SV 07 Elversberg
X
24.5%
Draw
W2
46.6%
Away win
FSV Mainz
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.5%
Both teams to score
Yes68.4%
Totals 2.5
Over67.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.4% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 71.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.4% / 31.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.4% / 32.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.0% / 73.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
Goal distribution model
SV 07 Elversberg × FSV Mainz
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.4%
0:1
4.8%
0:2
5.9%
0:3
3.8%
0:4
1.9%
0:5
0.7%
1
1:0
3.4%
1:1
10.5%
1:2
9.0%
1:3
5.8%
1:4
2.9%
1:5
1.1%
2
2:0
3.6%
2:1
7.0%
2:2
6.8%
2:3
4.5%
2:4
2.2%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
1.8%
3:1
3.6%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
1.1%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.5%
1:29.0%
2:17.0%
2:26.8%
0:25.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.10.2026
SV 07 Elversberg
8th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:4
- 17.10.2026 home Augsburg 4:3
- 10.10.2026 away Union Berlin 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away Schalke 04 0:0
- 13.09.2026 home Bayern Munich 1:2
FSV Mainz
7th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Werder Bremen 2:3
- 17.10.2026 away Schalke 04 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Leverkusen 3:4
- 19.09.2026 away M'gladbach 4:3
- 12.09.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 1:3
This season: SV 07 Elversberg at home vs FSV Mainz away
| Metric | SV 07 Elversberg · at home | FSV Mainz · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 3–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.99 | 2.51 |
| xG against per match | 2.88 | 1.33 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| Corners per match | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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