Union Berlin — 1. FC Cologne: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
37.9%
Home win
Union Berlin
X
25.8%
Draw
W2
36.4%
Away win
1. FC Cologne
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.2%
Both teams to score
Yes63.6%
Totals 2.5
Over60.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.6% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 62.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Goal distribution model
Union Berlin × 1. FC Cologne
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.4%
0:1
5.7%
0:2
5.2%
0:3
2.7%
0:4
1.0%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
5.9%
1:1
11.7%
1:2
8.3%
1:3
4.3%
1:4
1.7%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.5%
2:1
8.5%
2:2
6.6%
2:3
3.4%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
2.9%
3:1
4.5%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.1%
4:1
1.8%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.7%
2:18.5%
1:28.3%
2:26.6%
1:05.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Union Berlin
17th place · 6 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Augsburg 1:1
- 17.10.2026 home Dortmund 0:0
- 10.10.2026 home Elversberg 1:0
- 18.09.2026 away Bayern Munich 0:7
- 11.09.2026 home Schalke 04 1:3
1. FC Cologne
12th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Schalke 04 0:0
- 16.10.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 0:1
- 11.10.2026 home M'gladbach 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Hamburg 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Werder Bremen 1:1
This season: Union Berlin at home vs 1. FC Cologne away
| Metric | Union Berlin · at home | 1. FC Cologne · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–1 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.43 | 1.69 |
| xG against per match | 1.33 | 2.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 5.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Union Berlin wins3
Draws2
1. FC Cologne wins1
Goals per match2.17
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 02.05.2026 Union Berlin 2:2 1. FC Cologne
- 20.12.2025 1. FC Cologne 0:1 Union Berlin
- 11.05.2024 1. FC Cologne 3:2 Union Berlin
- 20.12.2023 Union Berlin 2:0 1. FC Cologne
- 04.03.2023 Union Berlin 0:0 1. FC Cologne
- 11.09.2022 1. FC Cologne 0:1 Union Berlin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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