Werder Bremen — SC Paderborn 07: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
54.7%
Home win
Werder Bremen
X
24.0%
Draw
W2
21.3%
Away win
SC Paderborn 07
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.7%
Both teams to score
Yes64.2%
Totals 2.5
Over64.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.7% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Goal distribution model
Werder Bremen × SC Paderborn 07
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.1%
0:1
3.0%
0:2
2.8%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
5.9%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
5.9%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.7%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.3%
3:1
6.7%
3:2
4.2%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.8%
4:1
3.5%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.1%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
2:19.7%
2:07.7%
3:16.7%
2:26.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Werder Bremen
8th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Augsburg 3:2
- 12.09.2026 away FC Koln 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
- 16.05.2026 home Dortmund 0:2
SC Paderborn 07
12th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Hoffenheim 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Dortmund 0:3
- 05.09.2026 home Freiburg 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Mainz 0:0
- 17.05.2026 away Darmstadt 2:0
This season: Werder Bremen at home vs SC Paderborn 07 away
| Metric | Werder Bremen · at home | SC Paderborn 07 · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.87 | 0.61 |
| xG against per match | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Werder Bremen wins2
Draws0
SC Paderborn 07 wins2
Goals per match4.75
Both teams scored3/4
Over 2.5 goals3/4
- 22.01.2022 SC Paderborn 07 3:4 Werder Bremen
- 15.08.2021 Werder Bremen 1:4 SC Paderborn 07
- 13.06.2020 SC Paderborn 07 1:5 Werder Bremen
- 08.12.2019 Werder Bremen 0:1 SC Paderborn 07
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.