Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
24.6%
Home win
Hamburger SV
X
22.1%
Draw
W2
53.3%
Away win
VfB Stuttgart
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1277.9%
Both teams to score
Yes69.7%
Totals 2.5
Over71.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.7% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 75.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Goal distribution model
Hamburger SV × VfB Stuttgart
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.4%
0:1
4.6%
0:2
6.1%
0:3
4.5%
0:4
2.5%
0:5
1.1%
1
1:0
2.8%
1:1
9.0%
1:2
9.0%
1:3
6.6%
1:4
3.7%
1:5
1.6%
2
2:0
2.7%
2:1
6.0%
2:2
6.7%
2:3
4.9%
2:4
2.7%
2:5
1.2%
3
3:0
1.4%
3:1
3.0%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
2.4%
3:4
1.3%
3:5
0.6%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
1.1%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.0%
1:29.0%
2:26.7%
1:36.6%
0:26.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Hamburger SV
16th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home FC Koln 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:5
- 06.09.2026 home Mainz 0:5
- 29.08.2026 away Dortmund 0:2
- 16.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:1
VfB Stuttgart
15th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Dortmund 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 1:2
- 04.09.2026 home FC Koln 4:1
- 28.08.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 16.05.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
This season: Hamburger SV at home vs VfB Stuttgart away
| Metric | Hamburger SV · at home | VfB Stuttgart · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.89 | 1.48 |
| xG against per match | 2.10 | 3.41 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Hamburger SV wins2
Draws0
VfB Stuttgart wins2
Goals per match5.00
Both teams scored3/4
Over 2.5 goals4/4
- 12.04.2026 VfB Stuttgart 4:0 Hamburger SV
- 30.11.2025 Hamburger SV 2:1 VfB Stuttgart
- 28.05.2020 VfB Stuttgart 3:2 Hamburger SV
- 26.10.2019 Hamburger SV 6:2 VfB Stuttgart
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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