Schalke 04 — FSV Mainz: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
32.9%
Home win
Schalke 04
X
24.4%
Draw
W2
42.7%
Away win
FSV Mainz
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.6%
Both teams to score
Yes64.6%
Totals 2.5
Over62.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.3% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 67.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Goal distribution model
Schalke 04 × FSV Mainz
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.6%
0:1
6.2%
0:2
5.9%
0:3
3.4%
0:4
1.5%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
5.3%
1:1
10.9%
1:2
8.9%
1:3
5.1%
1:4
2.2%
1:5
0.8%
2
2:0
4.4%
2:1
7.7%
2:2
6.7%
2:3
3.9%
2:4
1.7%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
2.2%
3:1
3.9%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.9%
1:28.9%
2:17.7%
2:26.7%
0:16.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Schalke 04
11th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Elversberg 0:0
- 11.09.2026 away Union Berlin 3:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bayern Munich 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Augsburg 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Braunschweig 1:0
FSV Mainz
6th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away M'gladbach 4:3
- 12.09.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 1:3
- 06.09.2026 away Hamburg 5:0
- 29.08.2026 home Paderborn 0:0
- 16.05.2026 away Heidenheim 2:0
This season: Schalke 04 at home vs FSV Mainz away
| Metric | Schalke 04 · at home | FSV Mainz · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 4.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.61 | 2.80 |
| xG against per match | 1.48 | 1.78 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Schalke 04 wins3
Draws3
FSV Mainz wins0
Goals per match2.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 05.05.2023 FSV Mainz 2:3 Schalke 04
- 09.11.2022 Schalke 04 1:0 FSV Mainz
- 05.03.2021 Schalke 04 0:0 FSV Mainz
- 07.11.2020 FSV Mainz 2:2 Schalke 04
- 16.02.2020 FSV Mainz 0:0 Schalke 04
- 20.09.2019 Schalke 04 2:1 FSV Mainz
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 2.30 → now 2.20 |
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