Bayern Munich — RB Leipzig: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
80.1%
Home win
Bayern Munich
X
11.6%
Draw
W2
8.3%
Away win
RB Leipzig
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X91.7%
Both teams to score
Yes68.9%
Totals 2.5
Over85.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.7% |
| 12 | 88.4% | |
| X2 | 19.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.8% / 1.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 34.7% / 65.3% |
Goal distribution model
Bayern Munich × RB Leipzig
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
1.2%
0:1
0.7%
0:2
0.6%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
2.6%
1:1
4.0%
1:2
2.2%
1:3
0.9%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
5.3%
2:1
6.5%
2:2
3.9%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.3%
3:1
7.7%
3:2
4.7%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
5.6%
4:1
6.9%
4:2
4.2%
4:3
1.7%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
4.0%
5:1
4.9%
5:2
3.0%
5:3
1.2%
5:4
0.4%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
3:17.7%
4:16.9%
2:16.5%
3:06.3%
4:05.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Bayern Munich
2nd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Union Berlin 7:0
- 13.09.2026 away Elversberg 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Schalke 04 0:0
- 28.08.2026 home Stuttgart 5:1
- 16.05.2026 home FC Koln 5:1
RB Leipzig
9th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:2
- 13.09.2026 home Hamburg 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Werder Bremen 1:3
- 29.08.2026 home M'gladbach 3:0
- 16.05.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
This season: Bayern Munich at home vs RB Leipzig away
| Metric | Bayern Munich · at home | RB Leipzig · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 6.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 3.92 | 1.24 |
| xG against per match | 0.56 | 1.61 |
| Shots on target per match | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Bayern Munich wins4
Draws2
RB Leipzig wins0
Goals per match5.17
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
- 17.01.2026 RB Leipzig 1:5 Bayern Munich
- 22.08.2025 Bayern Munich 6:0 RB Leipzig
- 03.05.2025 RB Leipzig 3:3 Bayern Munich
- 20.12.2024 Bayern Munich 5:1 RB Leipzig
- 24.02.2024 Bayern Munich 2:1 RB Leipzig
- 30.09.2023 RB Leipzig 2:2 Bayern Munich
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.