Bayer Leverkusen — SC Freiburg: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
55.9%
Home win
Bayer Leverkusen
X
22.3%
Draw
W2
21.7%
Away win
SC Freiburg
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.3%
Both teams to score
Yes65.3%
Totals 2.5
Over67.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.3% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Goal distribution model
Bayer Leverkusen × SC Freiburg
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.0%
0:1
3.2%
0:2
2.7%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
5.9%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
5.8%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.3%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
6.2%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.2%
3:1
6.8%
3:2
4.5%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.8%
4:1
3.7%
4:2
2.4%
4:3
1.0%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.2%
5:1
1.6%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:19.7%
2:19.5%
2:07.3%
3:16.8%
2:26.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Bayer Leverkusen
5th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 2:0
- 12.09.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Union Berlin 4:0
- 29.08.2026 away Elversberg 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
SC Freiburg
3rd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home M'gladbach 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Werder Bremen 4:1
- 16.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
This season: Bayer Leverkusen at home vs SC Freiburg away
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen · at home | SC Freiburg · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.69 | 2.17 |
| xG against per match | 0.69 | 1.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Bayer Leverkusen wins4
Draws2
SC Freiburg wins0
Goals per match4.33
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 07.03.2026 SC Freiburg 3:3 Bayer Leverkusen
- 26.10.2025 Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 SC Freiburg
- 04.05.2025 SC Freiburg 2:2 Bayer Leverkusen
- 21.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen 5:1 SC Freiburg
- 17.03.2024 SC Freiburg 2:3 Bayer Leverkusen
- 29.10.2023 Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 SC Freiburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.33 → now 4.20 |
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