Borussia Monchengladbach — TSG Hoffenheim: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
28.9%
Home win
Borussia Monchengladbach
X
23.4%
Draw
W2
47.7%
Away win
TSG Hoffenheim
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.6%
Both teams to score
Yes71.2%
Totals 2.5
Over71.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.3% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 71.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.2% / 28.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.3% / 28.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Goal distribution model
Borussia Monchengladbach × TSG Hoffenheim
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.6%
0:1
4.0%
0:2
5.4%
0:3
3.8%
0:4
2.0%
0:5
0.8%
1
1:0
2.8%
1:1
9.5%
1:2
8.7%
1:3
6.0%
1:4
3.1%
1:5
1.3%
2
2:0
3.2%
2:1
6.7%
2:2
7.0%
2:3
4.9%
2:4
2.5%
2:5
1.1%
3
3:0
1.7%
3:1
3.6%
3:2
3.8%
3:3
2.6%
3:4
1.4%
3:5
0.6%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.5%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
1.0%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.5%
1:28.7%
2:27.0%
2:16.7%
1:36.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Borussia Monchengladbach
18th place · 0 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Mainz 3:4
- 12.09.2026 away Freiburg 0:5
- 05.09.2026 home Elversberg 3:4
- 29.08.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hoffenheim 4:0
TSG Hoffenheim
14th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:3
- 12.09.2026 home Stuttgart 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Dortmund 2:3
- 29.08.2026 away FC Koln 2:3
- 16.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:4
This season: Borussia Monchengladbach at home vs TSG Hoffenheim away
| Metric | Borussia Monchengladbach · at home | TSG Hoffenheim · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.81 | 1.69 |
| xG against per match | 2.57 | 1.32 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.50 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Borussia Monchengladbach wins3
Draws1
TSG Hoffenheim wins2
Goals per match5.17
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
- 16.05.2026 Borussia Monchengladbach 4:0 TSG Hoffenheim
- 14.01.2026 TSG Hoffenheim 5:1 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 03.05.2025 Borussia Monchengladbach 4:4 TSG Hoffenheim
- 21.12.2024 TSG Hoffenheim 1:2 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 20.04.2024 TSG Hoffenheim 4:3 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 02.12.2023 Borussia Monchengladbach 2:1 TSG Hoffenheim
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.30 → now 3.20 |
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