Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
18.8%
Home win
Union Berlin
X
22.7%
Draw
W2
58.5%
Away win
Borussia Dortmund
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X281.2%
Both teams to score
Yes63.8%
Totals 2.5
Over66.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 41.5% |
| 12 | 77.3% | |
| X2 | 81.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.3% / 33.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.5% / 55.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.8% / 74.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
Goal distribution model
Union Berlin × Borussia Dortmund
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.6%
0:1
5.9%
0:2
8.0%
0:3
5.9%
0:4
3.2%
0:5
1.4%
1
1:0
2.7%
1:1
10.1%
1:2
9.7%
1:3
7.1%
1:4
3.9%
1:5
1.7%
2
2:0
2.4%
2:1
5.3%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
4.3%
2:4
2.4%
2:5
1.0%
3
3:0
1.0%
3:1
2.2%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.7%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.1%
1:29.7%
0:28.0%
1:37.1%
0:15.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Union Berlin
17th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Bayern Munich 0:7
- 11.09.2026 home Schalke 04 1:3
- 05.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:4
- 29.08.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:3
- 16.05.2026 home Augsburg 4:0
Borussia Dortmund
1st place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Stuttgart 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Paderborn 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Hamburg 2:0
- 16.05.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:0
This season: Union Berlin at home vs Borussia Dortmund away
| Metric | Union Berlin · at home | Borussia Dortmund · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.90 | 1.69 |
| xG against per match | 1.99 | 1.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Union Berlin wins1
Draws0
Borussia Dortmund wins5
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 24.01.2026 Union Berlin 0:3 Borussia Dortmund
- 31.08.2025 Borussia Dortmund 3:0 Union Berlin
- 22.02.2025 Borussia Dortmund 6:0 Union Berlin
- 05.10.2024 Union Berlin 2:1 Borussia Dortmund
- 02.03.2024 Union Berlin 0:2 Borussia Dortmund
- 07.10.2023 Borussia Dortmund 4:2 Union Berlin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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