Werder Bremen — RB Leipzig: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 43.2% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 78.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.9% / 33.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Werder Bremen
16th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
- 16.05.2026 home Dortmund 0:2
- 09.05.2026 away Hoffenheim 0:1
- 02.05.2026 home Augsburg 1:3
- 26.04.2026 away Stuttgart 1:1
RB Leipzig
3rd place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home M'gladbach 3:0
- 16.05.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
- 09.05.2026 home St Pauli 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:4
- 24.04.2026 home Union Berlin 3:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 Werder Bremen 1:2 RB Leipzig
- 23.11.2025 RB Leipzig 2:0 Werder Bremen
- 10.05.2025 Werder Bremen 0:0 RB Leipzig
- 12.01.2025 RB Leipzig 4:2 Werder Bremen
- 11.05.2024 RB Leipzig 1:1 Werder Bremen
- 19.12.2023 Werder Bremen 1:1 RB Leipzig
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Werder Bremen face RB Leipzig in a Bundesliga meeting that projects to be open and competitive. The available assessment gives RB Leipzig a slight edge, although the moderate confidence suggests that the gap between the teams is not decisive. Werder Bremen should still have opportunities to influence the match, particularly if they can turn possession and attacking moments into sustained pressure.
The game is expected to feature chances at both ends, with both teams likely to score. That points towards an entertaining contest rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. RB Leipzig may possess the stronger overall outlook, but Werder Bremen remain capable of making the match uncomfortable and keeping the result in doubt. The most relevant signal is the expectation that both sides will find the net, while the broader scoring outlook favours a match with several attacking phases. Leipzig’s edge is therefore best understood as a narrow advantage in a potentially high-scoring encounter, not as an indication of a certain result.
What matters before kick-off
Werder Bremen Injury Updates
Werder Bremen enter their first home game of the season with several squad absences, as Felix Agu, Keke Topp, Jens Stage, and Justin Njinmah miss out through injury.
Justin Njinmah Sidelined Long-Term
Werder Bremen attacker Justin Njinmah sustained a muscular thigh injury against SC Freiburg and will be out of action for the coming months.
RB Leipzig Sign Marc Guiu
RB Leipzig bolstered their forward line ahead of the match by signing 20-year-old striker Marc Guiu from Chelsea on a contract running until 2031.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
