Match intelligence

Werder Bremen — RB Leipzig: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026

League: Bundesliga (Germany) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Werder Bremen3
:
1RB Leipzig
Locked signal BTTS Probability 68.3% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 22.6% Home win Werder Bremen
X 21.3% Draw
W2 56.2% Away win RB Leipzig
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1278.4%
Both teams to score
Yes66.9%
Totals 2.5
Over69.4%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X43.2%
1278.4%
X278.4%
Both teams to scoreYes/No66.9% / 33.1%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 96.4% / 3.6%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 88.1% / 11.9%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 69.4% / 30.6%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 48.1% / 51.9%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 29.0% / 71.0%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 15.4% / 84.6%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Werder Bremen × RB Leipzig
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 3.6%
0:1 5.4%
0:2 6.9%
0:3 5.2%
0:4 2.9%
0:5 1.3%
1
1:0 2.9%
1:1 9.2%
1:2 9.4%
1:3 7.0%
1:4 3.9%
1:5 1.7%
2
2:0 2.5%
2:1 5.6%
2:2 6.3%
2:3 4.7%
2:4 2.6%
2:5 1.2%
3
3:0 1.1%
3:1 2.5%
3:2 2.8%
3:3 2.1%
3:4 1.2%
3:5 0.5%
4
4:0 0.4%
4:1 0.9%
4:2 1.0%
4:3 0.7%
4:4 0.4%
4:5 0.2%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.2%
5:2 0.3%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.4%
1:19.2%
1:37.0%
0:26.9%
2:26.3%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026

Werder Bremen

16th place · 0 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 30.08.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
  • 16.05.2026 home Dortmund 0:2
  • 09.05.2026 away Hoffenheim 0:1
  • 02.05.2026 home Augsburg 1:3
  • 26.04.2026 away Stuttgart 1:1

RB Leipzig

3rd place · 3 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 29.08.2026 home M'gladbach 3:0
  • 16.05.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
  • 09.05.2026 home St Pauli 2:1
  • 02.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:4
  • 24.04.2026 home Union Berlin 3:1

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Werder Bremen wins0
Draws3
RB Leipzig wins3
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
  • 04.04.2026 Werder Bremen 1:2 RB Leipzig
  • 23.11.2025 RB Leipzig 2:0 Werder Bremen
  • 10.05.2025 Werder Bremen 0:0 RB Leipzig
  • 12.01.2025 RB Leipzig 4:2 Werder Bremen
  • 11.05.2024 RB Leipzig 1:1 Werder Bremen
  • 19.12.2023 Werder Bremen 1:1 RB Leipzig

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Werder Bremen face RB Leipzig in a Bundesliga meeting that projects to be open and competitive. The available assessment gives RB Leipzig a slight edge, although the moderate confidence suggests that the gap between the teams is not decisive. Werder Bremen should still have opportunities to influence the match, particularly if they can turn possession and attacking moments into sustained pressure.

The game is expected to feature chances at both ends, with both teams likely to score. That points towards an entertaining contest rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. RB Leipzig may possess the stronger overall outlook, but Werder Bremen remain capable of making the match uncomfortable and keeping the result in doubt. The most relevant signal is the expectation that both sides will find the net, while the broader scoring outlook favours a match with several attacking phases. Leipzig’s edge is therefore best understood as a narrow advantage in a potentially high-scoring encounter, not as an indication of a certain result.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Team news

Werder Bremen Injury Updates

Werder Bremen enter their first home game of the season with several squad absences, as Felix Agu, Keke Topp, Jens Stage, and Justin Njinmah miss out through injury.

Team news

Justin Njinmah Sidelined Long-Term

Werder Bremen attacker Justin Njinmah sustained a muscular thigh injury against SC Freiburg and will be out of action for the coming months.

Team news

RB Leipzig Sign Marc Guiu

RB Leipzig bolstered their forward line ahead of the match by signing 20-year-old striker Marc Guiu from Chelsea on a contract running until 2031.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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