TSG Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.5% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.4% / 31.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
TSG Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund appear evenly matched ahead of this Bundesliga meeting, with a moderate level of confidence in that assessment. Neither side has a clearly defined advantage in the available data, so the match may be shaped by how well each team balances its attacking intent with defensive discipline.
The outlook points toward an open, high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to score. That makes the game difficult to separate, with several plausible outcomes rather than one dominant scenario. TSG Hoffenheim could threaten when moving forward, while Borussia Dortmund also has the profile to create enough chances to influence the result. The central expectation is a competitive match with opportunities at both ends and a narrow margin between the teams. A draw is a credible possibility, although either side could edge the contest if it converts its chances more efficiently.
What matters before kick-off
Serious injury for Konstantelias
Borussia Dortmund midfielder Giannis Konstantelias has been ruled out for several months after suffering a cruciate ligament injury during the opening Bundesliga matchday.
Convincing German Cup win for Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund thrashed HEBC Hamburg 5-0 in their German Cup opener, securing another clean sheet victory.
Hoffenheim stumble on opening weekend
TSG Hoffenheim kicked off their Bundesliga campaign with a 3-2 defeat against FC Koln after conceding late goals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.