TSG Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.5% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.4% / 31.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
TSG Hoffenheim
14th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away FC Koln 2:3
- 16.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:4
- 09.05.2026 home Werder Bremen 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Stuttgart 3:3
- 25.04.2026 away Hamburg 2:1
Borussia Dortmund
5th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Hamburg 2:0
- 16.05.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:0
- 08.05.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:2
- 03.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:1
- 26.04.2026 home Freiburg 4:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.04.2026 TSG Hoffenheim 2:1 Borussia Dortmund
- 07.12.2025 Borussia Dortmund 2:0 TSG Hoffenheim
- 26.04.2025 TSG Hoffenheim 2:3 Borussia Dortmund
- 15.12.2024 Borussia Dortmund 1:1 TSG Hoffenheim
- 25.02.2024 Borussia Dortmund 2:3 TSG Hoffenheim
- 29.09.2023 TSG Hoffenheim 1:3 Borussia Dortmund
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
TSG Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund appear evenly matched ahead of this Bundesliga meeting, with a moderate level of confidence in that assessment. Neither side has a clearly defined advantage in the available data, so the match may be shaped by how well each team balances its attacking intent with defensive discipline.
The outlook points toward an open, high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to score. That makes the game difficult to separate, with several plausible outcomes rather than one dominant scenario. TSG Hoffenheim could threaten when moving forward, while Borussia Dortmund also has the profile to create enough chances to influence the result. The central expectation is a competitive match with opportunities at both ends and a narrow margin between the teams. A draw is a credible possibility, although either side could edge the contest if it converts its chances more efficiently.
What matters before kick-off
Serious injury for Konstantelias
Borussia Dortmund midfielder Giannis Konstantelias has been ruled out for several months after suffering a cruciate ligament injury during the opening Bundesliga matchday.
Convincing German Cup win for Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund thrashed HEBC Hamburg 5-0 in their German Cup opener, securing another clean sheet victory.
Hoffenheim stumble on opening weekend
TSG Hoffenheim kicked off their Bundesliga campaign with a 3-2 defeat against FC Koln after conceding late goals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.