VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Cologne: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.4% |
| 12 | 82.5% | |
| X2 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.6% / 65.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
VfB Stuttgart
18th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 16.05.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 09.05.2026 home Leverkusen 3:1
- 02.05.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:3
- 26.04.2026 home Werder Bremen 1:1
1. FC Cologne
7th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Hoffenheim 3:2
- 16.05.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 10.05.2026 home Heidenheim 1:3
- 02.05.2026 away Union Berlin 2:2
- 25.04.2026 home Leverkusen 1:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 VfB Stuttgart 3:1 1. FC Cologne
- 28.09.2025 1. FC Cologne 1:2 VfB Stuttgart
- 24.02.2024 VfB Stuttgart 1:1 1. FC Cologne
- 30.09.2023 1. FC Cologne 0:2 VfB Stuttgart
- 18.02.2023 VfB Stuttgart 3:0 1. FC Cologne
- 28.08.2022 1. FC Cologne 0:0 VfB Stuttgart
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
VfB Stuttgart go into this Bundesliga meeting with the clearer overall profile, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the home advantage should not be treated as decisive. The available assessment points to a high-scoring match, with VfB Stuttgart expected to create the stronger attacking platform and maintain the initiative for long periods. 1. FC Cologne should still have opportunities, particularly if they can exploit spaces during transitions or respond effectively after conceding pressure.
The forecast also indicates that both teams are likely to score, which adds an element of uncertainty despite the home side’s stronger standing in the evaluation. Possible score patterns include a narrow 2:1 victory for VfB Stuttgart, a more open 3:1 result, or a 2:0 home win if 1. FC Cologne struggle to convert their chances. The central expectation is therefore a competitive match with attacking intent from both sides and a slight-to-clear advantage for VfB Stuttgart.
What matters before kick-off
Stuttgart team news
Stuttgart winger Tiago Tomás misses the match against 1. FC Cologne due to a thigh muscle injury. Meanwhile, Chris Führich and Bilal El Khannouss have returned to the starting lineup.
Bundesliga opening matchday results
Stuttgart started their league campaign with a 5-1 away defeat to Bayern Munich, whereas 1. FC Cologne won their opening fixture 3-2 against Hoffenheim.
Cologne player availability
Cologne striker Thijs Dallinga, who scored twice in matchday one, is ruled out due to a gastrointestinal infection. Attacker Luca Waldschmidt also remains sidelined while building fitness after injury.
Stuttgart home stadium milestone
Stuttgart host their first home league fixture of the season at the MHP Arena, where they averaged 59,382 spectators per home match during the previous campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.