VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Cologne: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.4% |
| 12 | 82.5% | |
| X2 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.6% / 65.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
VfB Stuttgart go into this Bundesliga meeting with the clearer overall profile, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the home advantage should not be treated as decisive. The available assessment points to a high-scoring match, with VfB Stuttgart expected to create the stronger attacking platform and maintain the initiative for long periods. 1. FC Cologne should still have opportunities, particularly if they can exploit spaces during transitions or respond effectively after conceding pressure.
The forecast also indicates that both teams are likely to score, which adds an element of uncertainty despite the home side’s stronger standing in the evaluation. Possible score patterns include a narrow 2:1 victory for VfB Stuttgart, a more open 3:1 result, or a 2:0 home win if 1. FC Cologne struggle to convert their chances. The central expectation is therefore a competitive match with attacking intent from both sides and a slight-to-clear advantage for VfB Stuttgart.
What matters before kick-off
Stuttgart team news
Stuttgart winger Tiago Tomás misses the match against 1. FC Cologne due to a thigh muscle injury. Meanwhile, Chris Führich and Bilal El Khannouss have returned to the starting lineup.
Bundesliga opening matchday results
Stuttgart started their league campaign with a 5-1 away defeat to Bayern Munich, whereas 1. FC Cologne won their opening fixture 3-2 against Hoffenheim.
Cologne player availability
Cologne striker Thijs Dallinga, who scored twice in matchday one, is ruled out due to a gastrointestinal infection. Attacker Luca Waldschmidt also remains sidelined while building fitness after injury.
Stuttgart home stadium milestone
Stuttgart host their first home league fixture of the season at the MHP Arena, where they averaged 59,382 spectators per home match during the previous campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.