Bayer Leverkusen — Union Berlin: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.9% |
| 12 | 83.5% | |
| X2 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen face Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on 5 September, with the available assessment giving the hosts a moderate but clear advantage. Bayer Leverkusen are rated as the stronger side, although the indication is not strong enough to suggest a straightforward contest. Union Berlin remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can limit the hosts’ control and respond effectively when opportunities arise.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. The main scoreline indications are 2:1 and 2:0, while 1:1 is also considered a plausible outcome. That range suggests Bayer Leverkusen have the better overall outlook, but Union Berlin may still contribute to an active and closely contested match. The central expectation is therefore a home win in a game where defensive lapses or transitions could play an important role.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 1 Bundesliga Results
Bayer Leverkusen started their league campaign with a 3-2 defeat to SV Elversberg, while Union Berlin drew 3-3 with Eintracht Frankfurt.
Bayer Leverkusen Squad News
Bayer Leverkusen's new signing Doué has been ruled out of the clash against Union Berlin.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.