Bayer Leverkusen — Union Berlin: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.9% |
| 12 | 83.5% | |
| X2 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Bayer Leverkusen
13th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Elversberg 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Stuttgart 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
- 25.04.2026 away FC Koln 2:1
Union Berlin
9th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:3
- 16.05.2026 home Augsburg 4:0
- 10.05.2026 away Mainz 3:1
- 02.05.2026 home FC Koln 2:2
- 24.04.2026 away RB Leipzig 1:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.02.2026 Union Berlin 1:0 Bayer Leverkusen
- 04.10.2025 Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 Union Berlin
- 12.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen 0:0 Union Berlin
- 30.11.2024 Union Berlin 1:2 Bayer Leverkusen
- 06.04.2024 Union Berlin 0:1 Bayer Leverkusen
- 12.11.2023 Bayer Leverkusen 4:0 Union Berlin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen face Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on 5 September, with the available assessment giving the hosts a moderate but clear advantage. Bayer Leverkusen are rated as the stronger side, although the indication is not strong enough to suggest a straightforward contest. Union Berlin remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can limit the hosts’ control and respond effectively when opportunities arise.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. The main scoreline indications are 2:1 and 2:0, while 1:1 is also considered a plausible outcome. That range suggests Bayer Leverkusen have the better overall outlook, but Union Berlin may still contribute to an active and closely contested match. The central expectation is therefore a home win in a game where defensive lapses or transitions could play an important role.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 1 Bundesliga Results
Bayer Leverkusen started their league campaign with a 3-2 defeat to SV Elversberg, while Union Berlin drew 3-3 with Eintracht Frankfurt.
Bayer Leverkusen Squad News
Bayer Leverkusen's new signing Doué has been ruled out of the clash against Union Berlin.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.