Schalke 04 — Bayern Munich: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 13.8% |
| 12 | 90.9% | |
| X2 | 95.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.6% / 1.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Schalke 04
18th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Augsburg 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Braunschweig 1:0
- 09.05.2026 away Nurnberg 0:3
- 02.05.2026 home Fortuna Dusseldorf 1:0
- 26.04.2026 away Paderborn 3:2
Bayern Munich
1st place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 home Stuttgart 5:1
- 16.05.2026 home FC Koln 5:1
- 09.05.2026 away Wolfsburg 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Heidenheim 3:3
- 25.04.2026 away Mainz 4:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.05.2023 Bayern Munich 6:0 Schalke 04
- 12.11.2022 Schalke 04 0:2 Bayern Munich
- 24.01.2021 Schalke 04 0:4 Bayern Munich
- 18.09.2020 Bayern Munich 8:0 Schalke 04
- 25.01.2020 Bayern Munich 5:0 Schalke 04
- 24.08.2019 Schalke 04 0:3 Bayern Munich
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Schalke 04 face Bayern Munich in a Bundesliga meeting where the overall assessment gives the visitors a clear advantage. The confidence in that outlook is high, pointing to Bayern Munich as the stronger side before kickoff. Schalke 04 will need to manage the match carefully, particularly against the expectation of an open contest with several scoring opportunities.
The projection leans towards a high-scoring game, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains evenly balanced. The most likely scorelines favour Bayern Munich and include 0:3, 0:4 and 0:2. These scenarios suggest that the visitors could control the game and create a decisive margin, although Schalke 04 still have a plausible route to contributing to the score. Overall, the analysis indicates a strong away-team signal without removing the uncertainty that comes with an attacking, high-scoring match.
What matters before kick-off
Ron Schallenberg suspended for Schalke 04
Schalke 04 midfielder Ron Schallenberg is suspended for the match against Bayern Munich following his red card in the opening Bundesliga fixture against Augsburg.
Strong start to the season for Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich enter their first away league fixture following three consecutive wins across all competitions, including a 5-1 victory over VfB Stuttgart on the opening matchday of the Bundesliga.
Bayern Munich's head-to-head dominance
Bayern Munich have won each of their last 12 competitive encounters against Schalke 04.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.