Hamburger SV — FSV Mainz: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.2% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.4% / 20.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Hamburger SV
17th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Dortmund 0:2
- 16.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:1
- 10.05.2026 home Freiburg 3:2
- 02.05.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:1
- 25.04.2026 home Hoffenheim 1:2
FSV Mainz
12th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Paderborn 0:0
- 16.05.2026 away Heidenheim 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Union Berlin 1:3
- 03.05.2026 away St Pauli 2:1
- 25.04.2026 home Bayern Munich 3:4
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 20.02.2026 FSV Mainz 1:1 Hamburger SV
- 05.10.2025 Hamburger SV 4:0 FSV Mainz
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz meet in a Bundesliga contest that looks closely balanced on the available indicators. The overall assessment is of an evenly matched game, with neither side holding a clear advantage. The moderate confidence level points to a fixture where small details, rather than a substantial difference in quality, may shape the outcome.
The scoring outlook suggests a medium-scoring match, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That makes a 1:1 draw a natural reference point, although a narrow result for either side also fits the wider picture, with 1:2 and 2:1 among the plausible scorelines. The X2 signal gives FSV Mainz some additional support in the result assessment, but it does not remove the possibility of Hamburger SV taking points at home. Overall, this appears more likely to be competitive than one-sided, with the draw carrying significant weight.
What matters before kick-off
Opening Bundesliga results
In the first round of the Bundesliga, Hamburger SV suffered a 2-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund. FSV Mainz 05 opened their league campaign with a 0-0 draw against Paderborn.
Mainz record cup victory
Prior to the league kickoff, Mainz 05 equalled their biggest victory in club history by defeating VfB Krieschow 9-0 in the first round of the DFB-Pokal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.