Hamburger SV — FSV Mainz: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.2% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.4% / 20.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz meet in a Bundesliga contest that looks closely balanced on the available indicators. The overall assessment is of an evenly matched game, with neither side holding a clear advantage. The moderate confidence level points to a fixture where small details, rather than a substantial difference in quality, may shape the outcome.
The scoring outlook suggests a medium-scoring match, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That makes a 1:1 draw a natural reference point, although a narrow result for either side also fits the wider picture, with 1:2 and 2:1 among the plausible scorelines. The X2 signal gives FSV Mainz some additional support in the result assessment, but it does not remove the possibility of Hamburger SV taking points at home. Overall, this appears more likely to be competitive than one-sided, with the draw carrying significant weight.
What matters before kick-off
Opening Bundesliga results
In the first round of the Bundesliga, Hamburger SV suffered a 2-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund. FSV Mainz 05 opened their league campaign with a 0-0 draw against Paderborn.
Mainz record cup victory
Prior to the league kickoff, Mainz 05 equalled their biggest victory in club history by defeating VfB Krieschow 9-0 in the first round of the DFB-Pokal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.