SC Paderborn 07 — SC Freiburg: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.4% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 75.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.2% / 38.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.9% / 61.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SC Paderborn 07 host SC Freiburg in a Bundesliga fixture that points towards an open and competitive contest. The analysis expects both teams to find the net, with the overall scoring outlook leaning high. That suggests the match may feature a lively tempo and several meaningful attacking phases rather than a cautious, low-event encounter.
SC Freiburg carry a slight edge in the assessment, although the gap between the sides is not presented as decisive. The strongest market signal supports SC Freiburg avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a realistic part of the picture. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:2, reflecting both the expectation of goals and the visitors' stronger position in the forecast. SC Paderborn 07 should still have opportunities to contribute offensively, but SC Freiburg appear better placed to manage the key moments.
What matters before kick-off
First Bundesliga home fixture
SC Paderborn 07 host SC Freiburg at the Home Deluxe Arena on Matchday 2 of the 2026/27 Bundesliga season.
Freiburg preview highlights past trips
SC Freiburg's pre-match report noted that head coach Julian Schuster previously missed a memorable trip to Paderborn as a player due to a knee injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.