Watford FC — Southampton FC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.0% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 74.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.9% / 18.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.3% / 63.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 home Coventry 0:4
- 25.04.2026 away Middlesbrough 1:5
- 21.04.2026 away West Brom 0:3
- 18.04.2026 home Sheffield United 0:2
- 11.04.2026 away Oxford 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 away Preston 3:1
- 28.04.2026 home Ipswich 2:2
- 21.04.2026 home Bristol City 2:2
- 18.04.2026 away Swansea 2:1
- 14.04.2026 home Blackburn 3:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.02.2026 Southampton FC 1:0 Watford FC
- 30.08.2025 Watford FC 2:2 Southampton FC
- 13.04.2024 Southampton FC 3:2 Watford FC
- 09.12.2023 Watford FC 1:1 Southampton FC
- 13.03.2022 Southampton FC 1:2 Watford FC
- 30.10.2021 Watford FC 0:1 Southampton FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Watford FC host Southampton FC in a Championship match where the visitors hold a slight edge. The assessment points towards a competitive contest rather than a one-sided encounter, with Southampton FC better placed to avoid defeat. Confidence in that away-leaning view is high, although the balance of the game still leaves room for a draw.
The match is expected to produce a medium level of scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. That combination suggests an open contest with opportunities at both ends, while the overall signal favours Southampton FC in the result market covering either an away win or a draw. Watford FC should remain involved throughout, but Southampton FC appear to have the stronger position as the game develops.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability updates
Watford defender Jeremy Ngakia is recovering from a hamstring injury and remains unavailable. For Southampton, German midfielder Caspar Jander has been the main fitness query heading into the match.
Alessio Dionisi's Championship debut
The home opener against Southampton marks new head coach Alessio Dionisi's first Championship fixture in charge of Watford.
Sold-out away end
Southampton supporters completely sold out their full away allocation of 2,313 tickets at Vicarage Road for the season opening match against Watford.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.