Portsmouth FC — Queens Park Rangers: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.9% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.0% / 23.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portsmouth FC and Queens Park Rangers meet in a Championship fixture that appears finely balanced, with a moderate lean toward the hosts. Portsmouth FC have the slight edge in the overall assessment, but the gap is not substantial enough to make this a one-sided contest. Queens Park Rangers remain well placed to make the match competitive, particularly if they can keep the game open and apply pressure in key phases.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring match, with neither a low-event stalemate nor an open goal exchange clearly favoured. The prospect of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, which reinforces the view that small details could shape the outcome. Portsmouth FC may have the stronger platform at home, while Queens Park Rangers have a realistic chance of taking something from the fixture. Overall, the hosts hold a narrow advantage, but the draw remains a credible result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.