Portsmouth FC — Queens Park Rangers: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.3% |
| 12 | 70.9% | |
| X2 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 home Birmingham 1:1
- 25.04.2026 away Stoke 3:1
- 21.04.2026 away Coventry 1:5
- 18.04.2026 home Leicester 1:0
- 14.04.2026 home Ipswich 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 away Ipswich 0:3
- 25.04.2026 home Derby 2:3
- 21.04.2026 home Swansea 1:2
- 18.04.2026 away Millwall 0:2
- 11.04.2026 home Bristol City 0:0
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Queens Park Rangers 6:1 Portsmouth FC
- 26.12.2025 Portsmouth FC 1:1 Queens Park Rangers
- 22.02.2025 Portsmouth FC 2:1 Queens Park Rangers
- 19.10.2024 Queens Park Rangers 1:2 Portsmouth FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Portsmouth FC and Queens Park Rangers meet in the Championship on 15 August 2026 in a fixture that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives Portsmouth FC the benefit of home advantage, but only to the extent that the home side has a slight edge in avoiding defeat. Overall, the balance between the teams remains close, and neither side stands out as a clearly stronger contender.
The game is projected to sit in a medium-scoring range, although the prospect of both teams finding the net is difficult to separate from the alternative. That suggests a match where periods of caution could be followed by more open phases, with the final outcome likely to depend on which team manages the key moments more effectively. A draw is a credible scenario, while a narrow Portsmouth FC win also fits the assessment. Queens Park Rangers remain capable of taking a result, so the match should be approached as a competitive contest rather than one with a decisive pre-match advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Portsmouth injury list
Portsmouth manager John Mousinho faces an extensive injury list, with Thomas Waddingham, Keshi Anderson, Harvey Blair, Josef Bursik, Márk Kosznovszky, Josh Murphy, Connor Ogilvie, Marlon Pack, and Franco Umeh all expected to miss out.
EFL Cup exits prior to opener
Both teams enter their Championship opener following first-round exits in the EFL Cup: Portsmouth were defeated 3-1 by West Ham, while QPR lost on penalties to Millwall after a 1-1 draw.
Portsmouth home record against QPR
Portsmouth have not suffered a home defeat against Queens Park Rangers at Fratton Park in any competition since May 2000.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.