Portsmouth FC — Queens Park Rangers: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.3% |
| 12 | 70.9% | |
| X2 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portsmouth FC and Queens Park Rangers meet in the Championship on 15 August 2026 in a fixture that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives Portsmouth FC the benefit of home advantage, but only to the extent that the home side has a slight edge in avoiding defeat. Overall, the balance between the teams remains close, and neither side stands out as a clearly stronger contender.
The game is projected to sit in a medium-scoring range, although the prospect of both teams finding the net is difficult to separate from the alternative. That suggests a match where periods of caution could be followed by more open phases, with the final outcome likely to depend on which team manages the key moments more effectively. A draw is a credible scenario, while a narrow Portsmouth FC win also fits the assessment. Queens Park Rangers remain capable of taking a result, so the match should be approached as a competitive contest rather than one with a decisive pre-match advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Portsmouth injury list
Portsmouth manager John Mousinho faces an extensive injury list, with Thomas Waddingham, Keshi Anderson, Harvey Blair, Josef Bursik, Márk Kosznovszky, Josh Murphy, Connor Ogilvie, Marlon Pack, and Franco Umeh all expected to miss out.
EFL Cup exits prior to opener
Both teams enter their Championship opener following first-round exits in the EFL Cup: Portsmouth were defeated 3-1 by West Ham, while QPR lost on penalties to Millwall after a 1-1 draw.
Portsmouth home record against QPR
Portsmouth have not suffered a home defeat against Queens Park Rangers at Fratton Park in any competition since May 2000.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.