Bristol City — Millwall FC: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.3% |
| 12 | 72.2% | |
| X2 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 home Stoke 2:0
- 25.04.2026 away Birmingham 1:2
- 21.04.2026 away Southampton 2:2
- 18.04.2026 home Norwich 2:4
- 11.04.2026 away QPR 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 home Oxford 2:0
- 24.04.2026 away Leicester 1:1
- 21.04.2026 away Stoke 3:1
- 18.04.2026 home QPR 2:0
- 10.04.2026 away West Brom 0:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 29.12.2025 Millwall FC 2:1 Bristol City
- 06.12.2025 Bristol City 0:1 Millwall FC
- 04.03.2025 Millwall FC 0:2 Bristol City
- 17.08.2024 Bristol City 4:3 Millwall FC
- 01.01.2024 Bristol City 0:1 Millwall FC
- 12.08.2023 Millwall FC 0:1 Bristol City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bristol City and Millwall FC look evenly matched heading into this Championship fixture. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a competitive contest in which the balance could shift during the match rather than a one-sided encounter.
The scoring outlook is medium, with both teams scoring considered an uncertain possibility. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, reflecting a game that could remain close while still offering Bristol City a slight edge in the range of expected outcomes. Millwall FC should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the match compact and limit Bristol City's opportunities. Overall, the matchup points towards a narrow contest, with a draw or a home win appearing more consistent with the assessment than a clear away victory.
What matters before kick-off
Millwall team news
Millwall manager Alex Neil will be without Tristan Crama, Derek Mazou-Sacko, Alfie Doughty, Mathis Servais and Mihailo Ivanovic for the match against Bristol City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.