Charlton Athletic — Derby County: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.0% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 62.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Charlton Athletic and Derby County meet in the Championship in a fixture that looks closely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with moderate confidence in an evenly matched contest. That suggests the outcome may depend on small details, such as which team manages possession and defensive organisation more effectively during key phases.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 1:0 and 0:1 among the likely scorelines. Both teams scoring is considered an uncertain possibility rather than a strong expectation, so the match could develop into either a measured draw or a narrow result for one side. The overall signal leans toward Charlton Athletic avoiding defeat, but Derby County remain competitive enough to make this a difficult fixture to call. A cautious approach from both teams would not be surprising, particularly if neither wants to concede early.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.