Charlton Athletic — Derby County: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.9% |
| 12 | 69.7% | |
| X2 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.5% / 25.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.8% / 74.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Charlton Athletic and Derby County meet in the Championship in a fixture that looks evenly matched on the available indications. Neither side has a clear overall advantage, and the moderate confidence level suggests a contest where small details may carry considerable weight. The expected character is medium-scoring rather than dominated by either defensive or attacking extremes.
The possibility of both teams scoring appears balanced, so the match could develop in several different ways depending on the opening exchanges. Charlton Athletic will have home advantage, while Derby County appear to hold a slight edge in the signal pointing toward avoiding defeat. That does not remove the prospect of a draw, with the overall assessment still presenting the teams as closely matched. A controlled start, followed by greater attacking risk as the game progresses, would fit the available profile.
What matters before kick-off
Contrasting EFL Cup results ahead of Championship opener
Ahead of the Championship season opener, Charlton Athletic secured a 3-1 win over Cheltenham Town in the EFL Cup, while Derby County exited the competition following a 2-1 defeat to Lincoln City.
Derby County squad fitness updates
Derby County forward Patrick Agyemang is sidelined with a long-term Achilles injury, while defender Matt Clarke was forced off in their previous match against Lincoln City.
Derby County sign midfielder Alex Mowatt
Derby County strengthened their squad ahead of the opening fixture by signing midfielder Alex Mowatt on a two-year deal from West Bromwich Albion.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.